Game Recap: LAK 3, CHI 1, October 26, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK3

FinalSun, Oct 26, 2025Every game that night

CHI1

LAK beat CHI 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.02 expected goals to 1.77. A. Laferriere had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. A. Forsberg stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	0	2	1	3
CHI	1	0	0	1

1st 7:04CHIC. Bedard0.21 xG
2nd 3:30LAKA. Laferriere0.10 xG
2nd 4:54LAKK. Fiala0.17 xG
3rd 18:52LAKJ. ArmiaEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

LAKCHI

22Shots on goal23

3.02Expected goals1.77

48Shot attempts44

195v5 shots on goal18

0/3Power play0/5

14Hits24

8Blocked shots8

8Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways10

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 3.02 xGCHI 1.77 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK22 on goal, 3 scored

CHI23 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kempe	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	2	18:36	3:45
A. Laferriere	RW	1	0	1	6	2	0	+1	0	17:43	0:47
K. Fiala	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:15	3:30
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	16:31	0:48
J. Armia	RW	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	16:11	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	12:39	0:50
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:12	3:25
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2	2	18:18	3:31
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	16:55	0:00
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	13:35	3:26
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	8:10	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1:29	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	+2	0	19:16	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	15:24	0:55
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	21:55	0:33
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:26	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	19:11	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	23	22	1	.957	59:43	Win
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	22:41	5:57
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	11:55	0:00
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	22:59	4:45
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	22:37	5:02
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	20:16	2:56
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	18:44	3:08
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	15:54	5:28
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	14:54	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	12:53	3:26
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	10:55	0:00
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:15	2:40
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	20:37	6:21
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	18:24	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	2	16:56	0:40
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	16:19	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:27	1:57
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	13:29	0:08
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	11:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	21	19	2	.905	58:10	Loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1K. Fiala13:15Q. Byfield12:48A. Laferriere13:00

Line 2P. Danault13:28T. Moore13:34J. Armia12:50

Line 3A. Kopitar12:01A. Kuzmenko10:05A. Kempe11:09

Line 4C. Perry11:49A. Turcotte8:10

Pair 1D. Doughty18:34B. Dumoulin14:09

Pair 2C. Ceci15:37M. Anderson13:18

Pair 3J. Edmundson13:54B. Clarke13:35

CHI

Line 1F. Nazar14:59T. Teravainen15:01R. Donato15:12

Line 2A. Burakovsky14:59C. Bedard14:50I. Mikheyev9:41

Line 3J. Dickinson12:20L. Slaggert10:38C. Dach9:10

Line 4N. Foligno9:05R. Greene7:35

Pair 1A. Vlasic15:04S. Rinzel13:03

Pair 2W. Kaiser15:53L. Crevier9:29

Pair 3M. Grzelcyk13:43A. Levshunov11:08

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCorey Perry LAK Faces CHI, his team until Nov 20231 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 3.2, CHI 2.8	LAK 3, CHI 1
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	LAK 29.5, CHI 25.1	LAK 22, CHI 23
Win chance	LAK 56%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	3.1	1	0.93	1	35%	0
LAK K. Fiala	3.0	2	0.82	1	31%	1
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	3	0.84	1	25%	1
LAK Q. Byfield	2.3	1	0.76	0	24%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.3	0	0.46	0	20%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.3	6	0.44	1	18%	1
LAK T. Moore	2.2	1	0.53	0	22%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	2.1	1	0.52	1	24%	0
CHI F. Nazar	2.0	1	0.71	0	25%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.0	2	0.59	0	23%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.8	1	0.51	1	25%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.8	1	0.41	0	7%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.7	0	0.68	0	26%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.6	0	0.53	0	18%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.6	1	0.58	1	18%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.6	2	0.40	1	8%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.5	1	0.83	0	24%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.5	1	0.52	0	11%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.4	1	0.37	1	15%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	1.4	5	0.71	0	21%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.3	2	0.40	0	15%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.2	1	0.31	0	11%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.2	0	0.20	0	5%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.1	1	0.31	0	14%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	0	0.16	0	4%	0
LAK C. Ceci	1.0	1	0.24	0	5%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.0	0	0.26	0	6%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	2	0.24	0	3%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	1.0	1	0.26	0	5%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	0.9	1	0.20	1	4%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.9	0	0.20	0	8%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	0.9	1	0.24	0	8%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	0.9	1	0.22	0	3%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	0.8	2	0.22	0	1%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.7	1	0.12	0	4%	0
CHI R. Greene	0.7	0	0.23	0	13%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.