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Game Recap
LAK2
COL4
COL beat LAK 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.54 expected goals to 1.56. COL outshot LAK 26 to 15. M. Rantanen scored three for COL. M. Rantanen had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. A. Georgiev stopped 13 of 15.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| COL | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 0:32LAKA. Kempe0.58 xG
- 1st 3:40COLA. Lehkonen0.35 xG
- 1st 15:51LAKA. Kempe0.16 xG
- 2nd 16:07COLM. Rantanen0.19 xG
- 3rd 10:01COLM. Rantanen0.12 xG
- 3rd 18:01COLM. RantanenEN0.57 xG
Team Stats
LAKCOL
15Shots on goal26
1.56Expected goals3.54
38Shot attempts59
135v5 shots on goal24
0/1Power play0/3
24Hits20
18Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes2
11Giveaways12
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 1.56 xGCOL 3.54 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 | 1:19 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:11 | 1:14 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:52 | 0:35 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:11 | 0:40 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 18:00 | 1:21 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:46 | 1:20 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:34 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:36 |
| A. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:52 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:12 | 1:18 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:38 |
| C. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 44:32 | |
| D. Rittich | 5 | 4 | 1 | .800 | 14:41 | Loss |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rantanen | RW | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 23:36 | 3:52 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 24:45 | 3:36 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:13 | 3:38 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:00 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:35 | 3:37 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:18 | 2:17 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:57 | 2:17 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:00 |
| T. Tynan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:39 | 1:59 |
| C. Wagner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:24 | 0:00 |
| N. Prishchepov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:23 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:54 | 3:10 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:44 | 2:45 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:27 | 2:24 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 15 | 13 | 2 | .867 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 3.0, COL 3.3 | LAK 2, COL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 27.7, COL 29.9 | LAK 15, COL 26 |
| Win chance | COL 57% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.4 | 3 | 1.58 | 3 | 43% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 3.1 | 7 | 1.27 | 4 | 42% | 3 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.9 | 4 | 0.88 | 2 | 33% | 2 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.7 | 3 | 0.92 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.5 | 1 | 1.08 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.5 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.4 | 0 | 0.58 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.2 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.1 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.0 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.9 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 1.8 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.7 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.6 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.4 | 1 | 0.82 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.4 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK A. Thomas | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.3 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.2 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL N. Kovalenko | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL C. Wagner | 1.0 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL C. Haan | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK A. Lee | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL T. Tynan | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK C. Jones | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL N. Prishchepov | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.