Game Recap: LAK 0, COL 4, March 27, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK0

FinalThu, Mar 27, 2025Every game that night

COL4

COL beat LAK 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.51 expected goals to 1.65. M. Necas led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Blackwood stopped 22 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	0	0	0	0
COL	0	3	1	4

2nd 5:25COLL. O'Connor0.20 xG
2nd 6:57COLM. Necas0.12 xG
2nd 15:29COLM. NecasPP0.10 xG
3rd 4:56COLJ. DrouinPP0.14 xG

Team Stats

LAKCOL

22Shots on goal26

1.65Expected goals2.51

51Shot attempts50

205v5 shots on goal23

0/3Power play2/3

17Hits15

8Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes6

9Giveaways11

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 1.65 xGCOL 2.51 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK22 on goal, 0 scored

COL26 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	2	1	0	0	0	19:48	1:58
A. Kempe	RW	4	0	0	0	0	18:06	3:18
K. Fiala	LW	1	1	0	0	0	17:49	3:55
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	0	0	16:50	3:59
P. Danault	C	0	2	2	-1	2	16:11	2:37
T. Moore	LW	3	0	0	-1	0	16:09	1:53
W. Foegele	LW	1	0	1	-1	2	15:42	2:00
A. Laferriere	RW	1	1	1	0	0	15:36	0:13
A. Kuzmenko	LW	1	0	1	0	0	14:16	3:53
T. Lewis	C	1	0	0	-1	0	11:08	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	2	0	-1	0	10:08	0:00
J. Malott	LW	2	3	0	-1	0	9:19	0:00
D. Doughty	D	1	1	2	0	0	22:31	3:11
V. Gavrikov	D	1	2	0	-1	0	21:07	0:05
M. Anderson	D	0	3	0	0	2	19:58	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	3	0	1	-1	0	19:19	0:18
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	-1	0	16:39	2:40
J. Spence	D	1	1	0	-1	0	14:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	26	22	4	.846	60:00	Loss
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	2	1	3	4	1	0	+1	0	18:14	3:26
J. Drouin	LW	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	18:15	3:19
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	2	20:54	3:24
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:08	1:21
L. O'Connor	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:15	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	11:27	0:00
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	21:01	2:33
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	16:23	2:14
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	12:38	1:23
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	+1	0	12:10	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:19	1:28
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:36	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	2	2	0	0	3	+1	0	22:55	3:17
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	20:03	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	22:13	1:30
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	20:23	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:00	0:00
K. Middleton	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	14:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	22	22	0	1.000	59:48	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.8, COL 3.3	LAK 0, COL 4
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	LAK 25.6, COL 28.6	LAK 22, COL 26
Win chance	COL 58%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.4	2	1.22	1	35%	0
COL C. Makar	2.6	0	0.95	2	23%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.5	1	0.72	0	27%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.5	4	0.72	0	30%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.4	3	0.79	0	33%	0
COL M. Necas	2.4	4	0.77	3	24%	2
LAK W. Foegele	2.2	1	0.50	0	20%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.0	1	0.39	0	17%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.0	3	0.49	0	20%	0
COL B. Nelson	1.9	1	0.63	1	27%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	1.7	2	0.59	0	19%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	3	0.53	0	10%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.6	0	0.57	0	25%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.5	0	0.49	0	16%	0
COL R. Colton	1.4	0	0.37	0	16%	0
COL M. Wood	1.4	1	0.21	0	10%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.3	2	0.23	0	6%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.3	1	0.55	0	24%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.3	1	0.65	2	17%	1
LAK B. Clarke	1.3	0	0.33	0	5%	0
COL J. Drury	1.2	1	0.25	1	10%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.2	1	0.45	0	10%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.2	0	0.66	0	21%	0
COL C. Coyle	1.1	0	0.36	0	16%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	1	0.28	1	5%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.1	1	0.27	0	5%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.0	2	0.21	0	9%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	3	0.21	0	5%	0
COL K. Middleton	1.0	2	0.09	0	2%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.0	0	0.23	0	5%	0
LAK T. Lewis	0.9	1	0.16	0	7%	0
COL L. O'Connor	0.9	1	0.23	1	10%	1
LAK J. Spence	0.8	1	0.24	0	3%	0
COL R. Lindgren	0.8	2	0.25	0	4%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.6	0	0.15	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.