Game Recap: LAK 2, COL 5, December 29, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK2

FinalMon, Dec 29, 2025Every game that night

COL5

COL beat LAK 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.35 expected goals to 1.94. N. MacKinnon led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Blackwood stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	0	1	1	2
COL	1	2	2	5

1st 9:24COLJ. Drury0.05 xG
2nd 5:15LAKC. PerryPP0.18 xG
2nd 13:21COLM. Necas0.20 xG
2nd 17:30COLB. Nelson0.08 xG
3rd 4:58LAKJ. ArmiaSH0.06 xG
3rd 18:23COLN. MacKinnonEN0.58 xG
3rd 19:15COLC. Makar0.23 xG

Team Stats

LAKCOL

25Shots on goal26

1.94Expected goals3.35

53Shot attempts54

175v5 shots on goal19

1/3Power play0/4

29Hits18

11Blocked shots9

8Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways17

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 1.94 xGCOL 3.35 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK25 on goal, 2 scored

COL21 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kempe	RW	0	1	1	5	4	2	0	0	18:36	3:00
K. Fiala	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-2	0	17:54	3:22
J. Armia	RW	1	0	1	1	2	1	-1	0	13:59	2:27
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-2	0	13:49	3:28
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	19:14	2:37
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	3	6	2	-1	0	17:36	2:37
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:33	2:40
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	0	15:50	0:00
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	15:46	3:15
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	14:20	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	11:51	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	5:36	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	-2	0	18:01	0:22
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	23:17	3:31
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	4	19:28	2:26
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	18:28	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:01	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	25	21	4	.840	59:11	Loss
P. Copley	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	21:08	5:33
B. Nelson	C	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	20:21	4:55
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	19:43	3:38
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	19:42	3:35
M. Necas	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	0	18:09	4:25
G. Landeskog	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	17:49	4:22
J. Drury	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	2	13:10	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	2	12:02	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	8:41	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:02	3:04
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	10:50	2:24
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	8:45	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	0	21:38	4:52
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	15:20	0:01
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+2	0	21:01	3:08
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	20:18	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	18:22	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	0	15:17	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	25	23	2	.920	59:45	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1A. Kopitar12:54A. Kempe13:38A. Laferriere11:50

Line 2W. Foegele13:28T. Moore11:40Q. Byfield12:09

Line 3A. Kuzmenko12:16A. Turcotte11:36K. Fiala13:28

Line 4C. Perry9:32J. Armia8:43S. Helenius5:36

Pair 1B. Clarke16:47J. Edmundson13:18

Pair 2B. Dumoulin15:30C. Ceci13:08

Pair 3D. Doughty18:02M. Anderson11:20

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon15:06M. Necas13:44G. Landeskog13:27

Line 2A. Lehkonen13:00V. Nichushkin12:25B. Nelson12:01

Line 3R. Colton12:02J. Drury11:35V. Olofsson8:58

Line 4G. Brindley8:26J. Kiviranta6:46P. Kelly7:36

Pair 1B. Burns14:42J. Manson16:08

Pair 2D. Toews15:17C. Makar14:30

Pair 3S. Malinski14:28S. Girard14:44

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.6, COL 3.4	LAK 2, COL 5
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	LAK 26.1, COL 32.6	LAK 25, COL 26
Win chance	COL 63%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.5	2	1.45	2	41%	1
COL C. Makar	2.8	4	0.96	1	22%	1
COL G. Landeskog	2.7	1	0.85	1	31%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.6	3	0.65	1	27%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.6	5	0.74	1	30%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.5	2	0.69	1	30%	0
COL M. Necas	2.4	4	0.96	1	28%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.3	3	0.43	0	19%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.3	1	0.78	2	32%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.2	3	0.64	1	27%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	2	0.55	0	19%	0
LAK W. Foegele	1.9	3	0.34	0	17%	0
LAK T. Moore	1.8	1	0.38	0	17%	0
COL B. Burns	1.7	2	0.32	0	7%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.6	0	0.37	0	7%	0
COL D. Toews	1.6	0	0.45	0	9%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.6	0	0.31	0	6%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.5	1	0.37	1	18%	1
COL R. Colton	1.5	2	0.31	1	14%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.4	2	0.34	0	16%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	1	0.66	0	21%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	1	0.28	0	6%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.3	0	0.35	0	14%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.3	1	0.47	0	21%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.3	1	0.46	0	10%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.2	1	0.32	1	14%	1
LAK A. Turcotte	1.1	1	0.23	0	9%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	0	0.22	0	9%	0
COL J. Drury	1.1	2	0.25	1	10%	1
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	0	0.19	1	4%	0
COL S. Girard	1.0	0	0.26	1	4%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.8	1	0.19	0	3%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.8	1	0.19	0	4%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.7	0	0.16	0	3%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.7	0	0.15	1	8%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.3	0	0.08	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.