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Game Recap
LAK1
COL2
COL beat LAK 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.11 expected goals to 2.01. S. Laughton had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. S. Wedgewood stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| COL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 15:29COLA. Lehkonen0.29 xG
- 3rd 5:50COLL. O'Connor0.13 xG
- 3rd 17:38LAKA. PanarinPP0.05 xG
Team Stats
LAKCOL
25Shots on goal32
2.01Expected goals3.11
65Shot attempts72
195v5 shots on goal26
1/4Power play0/4
49Hits35
22Blocked shots21
10Penalty minutes8
14Giveaways14
4Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.01 xGCOL 3.11 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:30 | 3:35 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:07 | 4:31 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:07 | 3:31 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 | 3:00 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:42 | 3:39 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:28 | 1:35 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 1:35 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13:10 | 0:24 |
| J. Wright | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:13 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 6:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 6:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:33 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:30 | 3:12 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:21 | 1:31 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:01 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:08 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 58:42 | Loss |
| D. Kuemper | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:08 | 5:40 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:50 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:10 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:33 | 5:37 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:59 | 1:07 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:52 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16:23 | 5:17 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 4:51 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:26 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:25 | 5:57 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:09 | 1:25 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:49 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
LAK
Line 1A. Kopitar14:05A. Kempe13:35A. Panarin13:37
Line 2A. Laferriere13:04Q. Byfield13:16T. Moore12:32
Line 3J. Armia11:47S. Laughton12:20J. Wright11:06
Line 4M. Joseph6:56J. Malott6:34S. Helenius6:33
Pair 1D. Doughty18:52M. Anderson17:20
Pair 2B. Clarke15:10J. Edmundson12:41
Pair 3B. Dumoulin12:41C. Ceci12:31
COL
Line 1M. Necas13:14N. MacKinnon14:16A. Lehkonen13:11
Line 2B. Nelson13:39V. Nichushkin12:22P. Kelly11:26
Line 3N. Kadri10:48N. Roy10:09G. Landeskog11:06
Line 4L. O'Connor9:06J. Kiviranta7:37J. Drury7:51
Pair 1B. Kulak16:17S. Malinski17:04
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.6, COL 3.6 | LAK 1, COL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 25.4, COL 32.4 | LAK 25, COL 32 |
| Win chance | COL 65% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.2 | 3 | 1.57 | 1 | 42% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.9 | 2 | 1.22 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.7 | 4 | 0.54 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.6 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| LAK A. Panarin | 2.6 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.4 | 4 | 0.96 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 2.4 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.4 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| COL N. Kadri | 2.3 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 2.2 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.1 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.0 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.0 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| COL B. Burns | 1.9 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.9 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK S. Laughton | 1.4 | 5 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL B. Kulak | 1.3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK J. Wright | 1.3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| COL N. Roy | 1.2 | 4 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.6 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| LAK M. Joseph | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.5 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.