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Game Recap
LAK1
COL2
COL beat LAK 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.21 expected goals to 2.52. COL outshot LAK 36 to 25. Q. Byfield had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. S. Wedgewood stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 3rd 13:04LAKA. PanarinPP0.15 xG
- 3rd 16:25COLG. Landeskog0.26 xG
- OT 7:44COLN. Roy0.24 xG
Team Stats
LAKCOL
25Shots on goal36
2.52Expected goals3.21
63Shot attempts85
175v5 shots on goal27
1/5Power play0/3
23Hits29
26Blocked shots26
8Penalty minutes12
13Giveaways19
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.52 xGCOL 3.21 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:51 | 2:50 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:38 | 6:10 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:58 | 1:47 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:36 | 4:12 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:13 | 5:14 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:01 | 4:58 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:54 | 2:01 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:08 | 1:01 |
| J. Wright | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:39 | 0:05 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:19 | 0:04 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:07 | 0:22 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 28:46 | 2:29 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 2 | 25:23 | 0:17 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 0 | 21:25 | 3:55 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 36 | 34 | 2 | .944 | 67:44 | Loss |
| D. Kuemper | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:02 | 2:22 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 18:20 | 3:36 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:59 | 3:36 |
| N. Roy | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 13:55 | 1:14 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 23:12 | 3:36 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:02 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:08 | 0:02 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:02 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:38 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 27:37 | 0:02 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 28:49 | 3:36 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20:41 | 0:02 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20:33 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 67:28 | Win |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
LAK
Line 1A. Laferriere17:50Q. Byfield18:09T. Moore17:06
Line 2A. Kopitar14:34A. Panarin16:32A. Kempe13:52
Line 3J. Armia12:07S. Laughton13:47J. Wright12:11
Line 4M. Joseph9:27J. Malott8:59S. Helenius8:29
Pair 1D. Doughty22:48M. Anderson23:18
Pair 2J. Edmundson15:40B. Clarke16:27
Pair 3B. Dumoulin15:02C. Ceci15:32
COL
Line 1B. Nelson17:29V. Nichushkin16:49P. Kelly11:37
Line 2N. MacKinnon19:20M. Necas17:16A. Lehkonen17:36
Line 3N. Kadri11:48N. Roy12:41G. Landeskog14:36
Line 4J. Drury7:53J. Kiviranta7:59L. O'Connor7:38
Pair 2S. Malinski19:10B. Kulak18:41
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.6, COL 3.5 | LAK 1, COL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 25.3, COL 32.5 | LAK 25, COL 36 |
| Win chance | COL 65% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.2 | 4 | 1.56 | 0 | 42% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.8 | 5 | 1.19 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.7 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.6 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| LAK A. Panarin | 2.6 | 1 | 0.93 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.5 | 3 | 0.97 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.4 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 2.4 | 4 | 0.83 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| COL N. Kadri | 2.3 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 2.2 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.2 | 6 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.0 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.0 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.8 | 0 | 0.56 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| COL B. Burns | 1.8 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK S. Laughton | 1.5 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL B. Kulak | 1.3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK J. Wright | 1.2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL N. Roy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| LAK M. Joseph | 0.6 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.