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Game Recap
LAK4
FinalWed, Sep 30, 2026Every game that night
COL8

COL beat LAK 8-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.45 expected goals to 2.68. B. Nelson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. MacKinnon had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.8. M. Blackwood stopped 27 of 31.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
LAK1214
COL2428
  1. 1st 6:33COLB. NelsonPP0.10 xG
  2. 1st 15:14LAKB. Dumoulin0.02 xG
  3. 1st 17:58COLP. Kelly0.13 xG
  4. 2nd 0:23COLN. MacKinnonPP0.12 xG
  5. 2nd 1:28LAKJ. ArmiaSH0.06 xG
  6. 2nd 8:33COLN. MacKinnon0.07 xG
  7. 2nd 16:01COLN. Roy0.18 xG
  8. 2nd 17:50LAKT. MooreSH0.15 xG
  9. 2nd 18:34COLA. LehkonenPP0.23 xG
  10. 3rd 11:51LAKA. Panarin0.08 xG
  11. 3rd 14:03COLG. Landeskog0.07 xG
  12. 3rd 15:06COLA. LehkonenPP0.24 xG

Team Stats

LAKCOL
31Shots on goal29
2.68Expected goals3.45
60Shot attempts50
245v5 shots on goal22
0/4Power play4/5
17Hits19
15Blocked shots15
15Penalty minutes13
10Giveaways11
7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.68 xGCOL 3.45 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdCOL goal, 6:33LAK goal, 15:14COL goal, 17:58COL goal, 0:23LAK goal, 1:28COL goal, 8:33COL goal, 16:01LAK goal, 17:50COL goal, 18:34LAK goal, 11:51COL goal, 14:03COL goal, 15:06

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK29 on goal, 4 scored
COL29 on goal, 8 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. LaferriereRW022251+1015:313:06
A. PanarinLW101200-2020:166:02
A. TurcotteC011120+1215:352:50
E. HaulaLW011300-1015:262:58
T. MooreLW1012110014:560:05
J. ArmiaRW101201+1012:551:34
A. KempeRW000320-2219:235:00
Q. ByfieldRW000302-2018:594:51
M. ZuccarelloRW000000+2017:595:02
S. LaughtonC0003110015:070:08
A. LeeLW000110027:560:00
S. HeleniusC000130006:590:00
D. DoughtyD011102-2222:413:05
C. CeciD011101+3019:240:04
M. AndersonD011212+1019:210:12
B. DumoulinD101202-1016:300:12
B. ClarkeD0001020518:574:51
J. EdmundsonD0001100215:340:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Kuemper29218.72459:25Loss
A. Forsberg000–0:00

COL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. NelsonC1231000019:142:21
A. LehkonenLW202322+1019:272:26
N. KadriC022210+1017:572:55
N. MacKinnonC202820-2517:444:09
P. KellyC112130+2012:530:00
J. SchwartzLW022120-1212:492:27
M. NecasC011410-1019:114:11
G. LandeskogLW101101-1017:524:08
N. RoyC101221+1012:120:00
F. SvechkovC0000110015:280:00
T. HughesRW000220-3213:353:38
D. ToewsD022010+1220:042:27
C. MakarD022103-1018:144:08
B. BurnsD0110110015:230:00
J. MansonD0111110014:310:00
B. KulakD000001+1019:440:00
S. MalinskiD000203+1014:270:05
N. JuulsenD000001+1211:150:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
M. Blackwood31274.87160:00Win
S. Wedgewood000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1A. Panarin13:48Q. Byfield13:51A. Kempe13:55
Line 2M. Zuccarello12:30A. Turcotte12:04A. Laferriere11:37
Line 3S. Laughton12:03T. Moore11:54E. Haula9:06
Line 4J. Armia8:32A. Lee7:56S. Helenius6:59
Pair 1M. Anderson15:45C. Ceci15:49
Pair 2D. Doughty16:41B. Dumoulin13:37
Pair 3J. Edmundson14:14B. Clarke13:49

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon13:22M. Necas15:00A. Lehkonen12:59
Line 2B. Nelson12:08G. Landeskog13:44N. Kadri14:37
Line 3F. Svechkov13:33P. Kelly9:23N. Roy9:44
Line 4T. Hughes9:45J. Schwartz10:08
Pair 1D. Toews14:51C. Makar12:04
Pair 2B. Burns10:34J. Manson11:36
Pair 3B. Kulak15:58S. Malinski13:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 16 overs hit (38%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
COL N. MacKinnon3.5-148+1208Over
LAK A. Kempe2.5-105-1053Over
LAK A. Laferriere2.5+125-1552Under
LAK A. Panarin2.5+110-1252Under
COL C. Makar2.5-105-1101Under
COL G. Landeskog2.5+120-1551Under
COL M. Necas2.5-128+1104Over
COL N. Kadri2.5+130-1592Under
LAK Q. Byfield2.5+130-1403Over
COL A. Lehkonen1.5-160+1303Over
LAK B. Clarke1.5-146+1201Under
COL B. Nelson1.5-175+1501Under
LAK D. Doughty1.5+125-1701Under
COL D. Toews1.5-118-1100Under
LAK M. Zuccarello1.5-146+1200Under
LAK T. Moore1.5-150+1202Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreLAK 2.6, COL 3.5LAK 4, COL 8
Total goals6.112
Shots on goalLAK 25.2, COL 32.5LAK 31, COL 29
Win chanceCOL 66%COL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
COL N. MacKinnon3.881.31237%2
LAK A. Laferriere2.820.54221%0
COL G. Landeskog2.810.85131%1
COL M. Necas2.641.04128%0
COL N. Kadri2.620.67224%0
COL C. Makar2.610.95224%0
LAK A. Panarin2.620.92129%1
LAK T. Moore2.520.49120%1
LAK A. Kempe2.530.72030%0
LAK Q. Byfield2.430.57022%0
COL B. Nelson2.110.67328%1
LAK M. Zuccarello1.900.68019%0
COL A. Lehkonen1.930.58224%2
COL S. Malinski1.820.3708%0
COL B. Burns1.800.3619%0
COL D. Toews1.700.55211%0
COL J. Schwartz1.710.47219%0
LAK S. Laughton1.630.30014%0
LAK E. Haula1.530.34114%0
LAK B. Clarke1.410.3606%0
COL J. Manson1.410.3116%0
LAK J. Armia1.120.25112%1
COL B. Kulak1.100.2205%0
COL P. Kelly1.110.29212%1
LAK D. Doughty1.110.3518%0
COL F. Svechkov1.100.29010%0
COL N. Roy1.020.32112%1
LAK J. Edmundson1.010.1803%0
LAK A. Lee0.910.1909%0
LAK A. Turcotte0.910.2017%0
LAK M. Anderson0.720.2014%0
LAK S. Helenius0.610.1307%0
LAK C. Ceci0.610.1312%0
LAK B. Dumoulin0.520.1612%1
COL N. Juulsen0.500.1202%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.