Game Recap: LAK 2, DET 5, January 27, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK2

FinalMon, Jan 27, 2025Every game that night

DET5

DET beat LAK 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.76 expected goals to 2.90. L. Raymond led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). M. Kasper had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. C. Talbot stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	2	0	0	2
DET	1	2	2	5

1st 14:50LAKK. Fiala0.05 xG
1st 17:05LAKQ. Byfield0.15 xG
1st 17:40DETL. Raymond0.04 xG
2nd 6:03DETA. DeBrincatPP0.25 xG
2nd 16:53DETE. Soderblom0.44 xG
3rd 10:05DETM. Kasper0.52 xG
3rd 19:53DETM. KasperEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

LAKDET

25Shots on goal28

2.90Expected goals4.76

75Shot attempts56

225v5 shots on goal24

0/1Power play1/3

29Hits24

15Blocked shots19

6Penalty minutes2

12Giveaways13

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.90 xGDET 4.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK25 on goal, 2 scored

DET27 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Fiala	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	18:36	1:14
Q. Byfield	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	-2	2	17:24	1:14
A. Laferriere	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	16:09	0:46
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	20:58	1:14
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-2	0	20:38	1:14
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	16:47	0:46
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	2	15:22	0:46
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:30	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	13:25	0:46
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	10:07	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	8:58	0:00
T. Lewis	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:40	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	24:25	1:14
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	-1	0	22:50	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	21:54	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-2	0	21:29	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	14:37	0:46
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	27	23	4	.852	57:26	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Raymond	LW	1	3	4	4	0	1	+2	0	18:40	2:53
M. Kasper	C	2	1	3	4	2	1	+2	0	18:38	2:53
D. Larkin	C	0	2	2	5	1	0	+2	0	20:06	2:59
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	18:45	2:58
E. Soderblom	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	0	13:21	1:41
C. Fischer	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	11:07	0:00
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	18:26	1:10
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:15	1:41
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	12:40	1:34
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:14	0:06
T. Motte	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	10:49	0:03
D. Shine	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:50	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	1	5	3	+1	2	24:31	3:03
A. Johansson	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+2	0	21:04	0:37
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	0	24:25	0:08
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	+2	0	21:57	0:27
E. Gustafsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:14	1:10
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	12:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	25	24	2	.960	59:57	Win
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.8, DET 2.7	LAK 2, DET 5
Total goals	5.6	7
Shots on goal	LAK 27.0, DET 25.9	LAK 25, DET 28
Win chance	LAK 51%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	3.0	4	0.95	0	37%	0
LAK K. Fiala	3.0	3	0.90	1	31%	1
DET D. Larkin	2.8	5	0.86	2	32%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	2.4	4	0.68	1	27%	1
LAK W. Foegele	2.3	1	0.55	0	22%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.2	2	0.58	0	22%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	2	0.65	1	21%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.0	1	0.50	1	21%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.0	4	0.80	4	26%	1
DET M. Seider	1.8	1	0.52	1	8%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.7	0	0.57	0	19%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	1	0.39	0	6%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.5	2	0.85	0	25%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.4	4	0.34	3	15%	2
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.4	3	0.36	0	7%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.3	2	0.41	1	6%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.3	1	0.40	0	14%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	1	0.22	0	6%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.3	2	0.30	0	7%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.2	1	0.34	0	17%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.2	2	0.28	1	13%	1
DET A. Copp	1.2	2	0.38	0	15%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	1	0.22	0	6%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	1	0.31	0	13%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.0	0	0.18	0	8%	0
DET T. Motte	1.0	1	0.16	0	9%	0
DET A. Johansson	1.0	0	0.18	1	4%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	0.9	0	0.31	0	7%	0
DET J. Veleno	0.9	1	0.26	0	12%	0
DET E. Gustafsson	0.9	1	0.28	0	5%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	0.9	0	0.24	0	12%	0
DET C. Fischer	0.8	0	0.19	1	8%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.7	0	0.15	0	8%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.6	0	0.12	0	3%	0
DET J. Holl	0.5	0	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.