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Game Recap
LAK3
DET1
LAK beat DET 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.73 expected goals to 3.24. A. DeBrincat had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. A. Forsberg stopped 27 of 28.
Team Stats
LAKDET
22Shots on goal28
2.73Expected goals3.24
52Shot attempts68
165v5 shots on goal16
1/3Power play0/4
21Hits11
16Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes6
19Giveaways15
5Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.73 xGDET 3.24 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:35 | 1:58 |
| C. Perry | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:28 | 2:56 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:38 | 2:48 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:26 | 2:50 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:46 | 2:57 |
| S. Helenius | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:00 | 0:00 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:15 | 2:01 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:44 | 1:44 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| T. Ward | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:48 | 1:58 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 22:21 | 1:47 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:58 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19:26 | 3:01 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Kuemper | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:59 | 3:43 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 2:55 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:57 | 3:26 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 | 2:28 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:03 | 3:22 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:21 | 2:03 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:09 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 2:09 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 2:52 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:08 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:07 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:02 | 0:07 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 26:41 | 3:29 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:11 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:20 | 0:21 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:06 | 0:07 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 2:33 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
LAK
Line 1C. Perry13:23A. Laferriere13:52A. Kempe12:00
Line 2W. Foegele12:55Q. Byfield13:58T. Moore12:59
Line 3K. Fiala12:05A. Kuzmenko11:49J. Armia10:28
Line 4S. Helenius9:58T. Ward8:50J. Malott8:00
Pair 1D. Doughty18:13M. Anderson19:06
Pair 2B. Dumoulin13:57C. Ceci13:50
Pair 3J. Edmundson12:33B. Clarke16:14
DET
Line 1A. Copp13:33A. DeBrincat13:56P. Kane12:08
Line 2D. Larkin14:14L. Raymond12:56M. Kasper13:02
Line 3M. Appleton12:01E. Soderblom11:25M. Rasmussen10:30
Line 4J. Riemsdyk8:59J. Compher9:19E. Finnie8:31
Pair 1J. Bernard-Docker17:40M. Seider18:35
Pair 2B. Chiarot18:16A. Sandin-Pellikka14:05
Pair 3T. Hamonic9:23A. Johansson15:37
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 3.0, DET 3.1 | LAK 3, DET 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 27.3, DET 28.1 | LAK 22, DET 28 |
| Win chance | DET 52% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.2 | 7 | 0.84 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.9 | 1 | 0.83 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.8 | 1 | 0.87 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 5 | 0.81 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.4 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.1 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.1 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.1 | 4 | 0.42 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.0 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.9 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK C. Perry | 1.8 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.7 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.7 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.5 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK T. Ward | 1.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET T. Hamonic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.8 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.6 | 3 | 0.16 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.