Game Recap: LAK 0, EDM 1, January 13, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK0

FinalMon, Jan 13, 2025Every game that night

EDM1

EDM beat LAK 1-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.34 expected goals to 2.10. A. Kempe had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. S. Skinner stopped 30 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	0	0	0	0
EDM	0	1	0	1

2nd 18:37EDMC. McDavid0.17 xG

Team Stats

LAKEDM

30Shots on goal30

2.10Expected goals3.34

57Shot attempts58

255v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play0/2

8Hits15

14Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways7

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.10 xGEDM 3.34 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK28 on goal, 0 scored

EDM30 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	2	1	1	-1	0	21:25	1:02
K. Fiala	LW	4	2	2	0	0	21:24	1:42
A. Kopitar	C	2	0	0	0	0	20:37	0:53
A. Kempe	RW	6	1	0	0	0	20:34	0:53
W. Foegele	LW	5	0	1	0	0	18:34	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	0	17:19	0:47
T. Moore	LW	2	0	1	-1	0	14:40	0:18
A. Turcotte	C	1	0	0	0	0	13:09	0:58
T. Lewis	C	1	0	0	0	0	11:26	0:14
T. Jeannot	LW	0	1	0	0	2	11:12	0:00
A. Laferriere	RW	1	1	0	0	2	9:52	0:53
M. Anderson	D	1	0	1	0	0	26:19	0:23
V. Gavrikov	D	2	0	3	-1	0	26:04	0:20
J. Edmundson	D	0	1	0	0	0	19:57	0:00
J. Spence	D	1	1	1	-1	0	16:12	0:44
B. Clarke	D	1	0	3	0	2	14:31	0:53
J. Moverare	D	1	0	1	0	0	10:05	0:00
K. Burroughs	D	0	0	0	0	0	2:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	30	29	1	.967	57:51	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	+1	0	24:36	2:51
C. McDavid	C	1	0	1	5	2	1	+1	0	24:18	2:50
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:26	2:51
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	19:55	2:50
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:35	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	13:55	1:10
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	13:53	1:08
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	13:20	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:31	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:48	1:08
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	9:22	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	0	22:41	1:12
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	22:38	0:56
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	22:23	3:04
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	19:16	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	17:06	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:54	0:00
J. Brown	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	6:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	30	30	0	1.000	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCorey Perry LAK Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20251 SOG
BirthdayConnor McDavid EDM Turns 28 that day1 G, 5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.7, EDM 3.2	LAK 0, EDM 1
Total goals	5.9	1
Shots on goal	LAK 25.1, EDM 29.4	LAK 30, EDM 30
Win chance	EDM 59%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	2.9	5	1.50	1	37%	1
LAK A. Kempe	2.9	6	0.89	0	35%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	5	1.29	1	42%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.7	0	0.73	0	35%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.7	4	0.77	0	29%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.4	0	0.76	0	14%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.3	3	0.57	0	20%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.1	1	0.47	0	21%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	3	0.36	1	9%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.1	5	0.48	0	20%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.0	2	0.50	0	20%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.0	2	0.58	0	19%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.9	3	0.43	0	10%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.8	2	0.70	0	22%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.6	0	0.52	0	18%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	1	0.38	0	6%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	2	0.77	0	23%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.4	2	0.31	0	13%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.4	1	0.28	0	6%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.2	2	0.39	0	19%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.2	1	0.35	0	12%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.2	1	0.27	0	6%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.2	2	0.32	0	6%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.1	1	0.32	0	10%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.0	1	0.30	0	4%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	0	0.19	0	5%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.0	1	0.16	0	8%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.0	1	0.30	0	14%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	0.9	0	0.25	0	10%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	0.8	0	0.20	0	11%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.8	0	0.13	0	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	0	0.27	0	9%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	1	0.18	0	2%	0
EDM J. Brown	0.7	1	0.11	0	3%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.6	1	0.13	0	3%	0
LAK K. Burroughs	0.2	0	0.03	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.