LAK beat EDM 5-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.36 expected goals to 1.68. LAK outshot EDM 36 to 21. A. Kempe led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). K. Fiala had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. D. Kuemper stopped 16 of 16.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 2:55LAKW. Foegele0.30 xG
- 1st 9:26LAKQ. ByfieldPP0.06 xG
- 1st 18:45LAKV. Gavrikov0.13 xG
- 2nd 7:43LAKK. FialaPP0.15 xG
- 3rd 8:13LAKA. Kempe0.12 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 4.36 xGEDM 1.68 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:45 | 8:03 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 8:42 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:17 | 8:29 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:13 | 2:34 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 17:16 | 2:29 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 17:46 | 2:45 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:37 | 6:24 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:24 | 8:41 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:25 | 3:03 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:17 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:18 | 1:44 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:16 | 0:03 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:47 | 0:02 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:18 | 3:07 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:21 | 0:04 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 16 | 16 | 0 | 1.000 | 48:13 | Win |
| D. Rittich | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1.000 | 11:47 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:21 | 5:23 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:09 | 5:32 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:19 | 3:47 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:48 | 4:03 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 4:24 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hutson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:17 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:24 | 4:14 |
| M. Jones | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 14 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11:58 | 4:59 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:25 | 3:28 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 23:24 | 5:41 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:17 | 0:23 |
| C. Dineen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:12 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 15 | 16:04 | 3:37 |
| J. Brown | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Pickard | 36 | 31 | 5 | .861 | 59:50 | Loss |
| S. Skinner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 3.1, EDM 3.1 | LAK 5, EDM 0 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 26.9, EDM 29.2 | LAK 36, EDM 21 |
| Win chance | EDM 51% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.8 | 8 | 0.78 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.7 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.6 | 6 | 0.76 | 3 | 31% | 1 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.5 | 5 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.4 | 3 | 0.50 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.2 | 1 | 0.50 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.2 | 4 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.1 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 2.0 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.0 | 4 | 0.68 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.7 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.7 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.6 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.5 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.3 | 1 | 0.74 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| EDM C. Dineen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.3 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 1.0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM M. Jones | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| EDM J. Brown | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.5 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.