Game Recap: LAK 4, EDM 7, April 25, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK4

FinalFri, Apr 25, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

EDM7

EDM beat LAK 7-4, and the chances backed it up: 5.05 expected goals to 2.43. EDM outshot LAK 37 to 28. C. McDavid led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). K. Fiala had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. C. Pickard stopped 24 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	1	3	0	4
EDM	2	1	4	7

1st 2:49EDMR. Nugent-Hopkins0.24 xG
1st 8:43EDME. BouchardPP0.09 xG
1st 17:18LAKA. Kempe0.10 xG
2nd 5:43LAKK. FialaPP0.07 xG
2nd 15:07LAKD. DoughtyPP0.03 xG
2nd 17:19EDMC. Brown0.09 xG
2nd 17:28LAKT. Moore0.05 xG
3rd 13:18EDME. Kane0.25 xG
3rd 13:28EDME. BouchardPP0.08 xG
3rd 18:20EDMC. McDavidEN0.94 xG
3rd 19:52EDMC. BrownEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

LAKEDM

28Shots on goal37

2.43Expected goals5.05

54Shot attempts84

215v5 shots on goal31

2/2Power play2/2

31Hits39

29Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes6

10Giveaways14

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.43 xGEDM 5.05 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK27 on goal, 4 scored

EDM37 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kopitar	C	0	2	2	2	1	4	-4	0	22:11	2:53
A. Kempe	RW	1	1	2	3	0	2	-3	0	21:19	2:53
T. Moore	LW	1	1	2	1	7	2	+1	0	19:41	0:20
P. Danault	C	0	2	2	0	1	5	+1	0	18:56	0:34
K. Fiala	LW	1	0	1	7	4	3	-2	0	21:03	3:06
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	20:02	0:21
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	19:43	2:46
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-4	2	18:35	3:07
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	16:10	0:00
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	4:39	0:00
T. Lewis	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3:01	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2:31	0:00
D. Doughty	D	1	1	2	4	0	0	-3	0	27:54	0:34
J. Edmundson	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+1	2	21:10	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	5	0	-2	0	26:40	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	21:18	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	11:34	0:41
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	35	30	5	.857	58:25	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	2	3	4	1	0	+2	0	21:43	0:13
L. Draisaitl	C	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	2	21:38	0:13
Z. Hyman	LW	0	2	2	3	5	0	+1	0	16:29	0:00
C. Brown	RW	2	0	2	3	0	1	+1	0	14:07	0:00
E. Kane	LW	1	1	2	4	5	0	+1	2	13:07	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	0	15:10	0:13
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	0	7	0	+1	0	14:27	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	1	1	2	2	2	0	0	11:52	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	14:36	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	11:11	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:24	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:04	0:13
E. Bouchard	D	2	0	2	4	1	1	0	0	20:44	0:13
J. Walman	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+3	2	21:44	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	+1	0	26:38	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	3	2	4	+2	0	23:44	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	17:49	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	28	24	4	.857	60:00	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCorey Perry LAK Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 3.0, EDM 3.2	LAK 4, EDM 7
Total goals	6.2	11
Shots on goal	LAK 26.7, EDM 29.0	LAK 28, EDM 37
Win chance	EDM 53%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	3.0	3	0.89	2	33%	1
LAK K. Fiala	2.9	7	0.79	1	29%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	3	1.17	2	40%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	4	0.79	2	14%	2
EDM C. McDavid	2.6	4	1.33	3	34%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	2.5	3	0.58	2	30%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.4	2	0.52	0	21%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.4	3	0.50	0	21%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.3	1	0.37	0	8%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.3	1	0.55	2	22%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.3	2	0.42	0	17%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	1	0.71	0	22%	0
EDM E. Kane	2.0	4	0.41	2	21%	1
EDM J. Walman	2.0	3	0.36	1	10%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	2	0.66	1	22%	1
EDM B. Kulak	1.7	3	0.31	0	6%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.7	2	0.74	0	27%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.6	0	0.55	2	17%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.6	3	0.34	2	13%	2
EDM C. Perry	1.4	0	0.40	0	19%	0
EDM J. Klingberg	1.4	1	0.38	0	7%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.4	1	0.32	0	6%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.3	2	0.79	2	23%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.3	2	0.41	1	20%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.3	4	0.47	2	11%	1
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.2	0	0.24	1	10%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.2	0	0.28	0	6%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.1	0	0.19	0	9%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	0	0.21	1	6%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.0	1	0.27	0	6%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	1	0.25	0	12%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	0	0.20	0	3%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.9	1	0.13	0	7%	0
LAK J. Spence	0.8	1	0.25	0	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	0	0.24	0	9%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.5	0	0.13	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.