Game Recap: LAK 3, EDM 4 (OT), April 27, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK3

Final/OTSun, Apr 27, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

EDM4

EDM beat LAK 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.73 expected goals to 3.20. L. Draisaitl led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). W. Foegele had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. C. Pickard stopped 38 of 41.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
LAK	1	2	0	0	3
EDM	0	1	2	1	4

1st 10:35LAKT. Moore0.10 xG
2nd 1:31LAKW. Foegele0.03 xG
2nd 4:11EDMC. PerryPP0.41 xG
2nd 7:32LAKK. Fiala0.24 xG
3rd 7:51EDME. Bouchard0.18 xG
3rd 19:31EDME. Bouchard0.05 xG
OT 18:18EDML. DraisaitlPP0.13 xG

Team Stats

LAKEDM

41Shots on goal48

3.20Expected goals4.73

72Shot attempts113

345v5 shots on goal40

0/3Power play2/3

44Hits53

32Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways17

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 3.20 xGEDM 4.73 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK39 on goal, 3 scored

EDM48 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Danault	C	0	2	2	5	0	5	+1	0	27:49	2:02
K. Fiala	LW	1	0	1	5	2	2	+1	0	27:13	3:50
A. Laferriere	RW	0	1	1	3	5	2	+1	0	25:59	0:07
T. Moore	LW	1	0	1	2	4	1	+1	0	25:13	1:37
W. Foegele	LW	1	0	1	9	0	3	+1	0	24:26	1:42
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	6	3	0	0	0	28:31	3:33
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	25:33	3:34
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	4	3	2	-1	2	24:20	3:53
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:38	4:04
T. Lewis	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	5:19	0:00
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2:27	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	1:44	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	4	8	0	0	36:16	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	7	1	+1	0	34:14	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	2	32:57	1:48
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	31:40	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:58	2:15
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	48	44	4	.917	78:14	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	1	3	4	4	4	1	+1	0	30:50	3:32
C. McDavid	C	0	2	2	7	1	0	+1	2	30:47	3:32
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	0	23:32	3:23
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	4	4	0	+1	0	20:18	3:18
E. Kane	LW	0	0	0	4	4	0	-2	0	23:23	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	0	12	2	0	0	21:12	0:06
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	20:17	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:04	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	12:52	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	12:07	0:09
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	11:19	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	9:34	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	2	0	2	9	1	1	-1	0	35:54	3:32
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	29:26	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	5	1	-3	0	27:16	0:05
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	26:08	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	3	2	4	+1	0	25:47	0:03
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	41	38	3	.927	76:24	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCorey Perry LAK Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20251 G, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 3.1, EDM 3.3	LAK 3, EDM 4
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	LAK 26.6, EDM 29.5	LAK 41, EDM 48
Win chance	EDM 54%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	3.0	4	0.92	0	34%	0
LAK K. Fiala	3.0	5	0.82	1	30%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	4	1.21	4	40%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	9	0.78	2	15%	2
EDM C. McDavid	2.7	7	1.39	2	34%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.5	0	0.60	0	30%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.5	9	0.54	1	21%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.4	3	0.38	0	9%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.4	2	0.58	1	22%	1
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.4	2	0.50	0	21%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.3	3	0.42	1	17%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	6	0.70	0	22%	0
EDM J. Walman	2.0	3	0.37	0	10%	0
EDM E. Kane	2.0	4	0.42	0	22%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	3	0.65	1	21%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.8	3	0.31	0	6%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.7	1	0.74	0	27%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.6	0	0.35	0	13%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.6	5	0.57	2	17%	0
EDM J. Klingberg	1.4	2	0.38	0	7%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.4	1	0.50	0	12%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	1	0.82	0	23%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.3	4	0.38	1	18%	1
LAK B. Clarke	1.3	0	0.30	0	6%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.2	2	0.41	0	19%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.2	0	0.26	0	11%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.1	3	0.28	0	6%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	1	0.22	0	6%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.0	0	0.27	0	6%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	1	0.25	0	12%	0
LAK T. Lewis	0.9	0	0.16	0	7%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	0	0.18	0	3%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.8	0	0.12	0	6%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	1	0.23	0	9%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.5	0	0.11	0	2%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.4	0	0.11	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.8 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.