Game Recap: LAK 4, EDM 3 (SO), January 10, 2026

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Game Recap

LAK4

Final/SOSat, Jan 10, 2026Every game that night

EDM3

LAK beat EDM 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.75 expected goals to 2.89. L. Draisaitl led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Draisaitl had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. A. Forsberg stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
LAK	1	1	1	1	4
EDM	1	1	1	0	3

1st 9:12EDML. Draisaitl0.15 xG
1st 17:50LAKC. PerryPP0.56 xG
2nd 1:07EDML. Draisaitl0.11 xG
2nd 3:42LAKA. Lee0.10 xG
3rd 6:21LAKA. Laferriere0.06 xG
3rd 9:20EDMC. McDavidPP0.10 xG

Team Stats

LAKEDM

30Shots on goal26

2.75Expected goals2.89

64Shot attempts52

245v5 shots on goal18

1/2Power play1/4

20Hits20

12Blocked shots20

8Penalty minutes4

19Giveaways15

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.75 xGEDM 2.89 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK28 on goal, 3 scored

EDM26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	2	21:16	0:45
A. Laferriere	RW	1	0	1	5	2	1	0	0	21:08	0:45
A. Kempe	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	19:34	1:18
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	2	16:35	1:04
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	15:47	1:18
T. Ward	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	8:49	0:00
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	7:12	0:00
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	19:16	1:18
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	18:50	0:59
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	15:11	0:45
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:31	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	8:51	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	2	2	3	1	2	-1	2	17:31	1:14
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	26:12	0:49
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	24:31	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	19:40	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:56	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	26	23	3	.885	65:00	Win
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	2	0	2	8	0	0	+2	0	27:27	4:44
C. McDavid	C	1	0	1	5	2	0	-1	0	27:06	4:42
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	2	0	3	-1	0	22:39	4:43
K. Kapanen	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+2	0	16:48	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	22:29	4:14
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	0	6	0	+2	0	16:49	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:40	1:07
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	11:47	1:07
I. Howard	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	10:24	1:06
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:19	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:16	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	6:45	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	2	2	0	1	5	+1	0	30:36	4:53
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	2	24:41	0:56
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	23:02	1:04
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	18:18	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:20	0:00
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	9:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	30	27	3	.900	65:00	OT loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1W. Foegele15:30Q. Byfield15:26C. Perry14:25

Line 2K. Fiala16:16A. Kuzmenko14:25A. Turcotte13:35

Line 3A. Kempe15:30A. Laferriere15:03J. Malott12:34

Line 4S. Helenius8:51A. Lee7:12T. Ward8:49

Pair 1D. Doughty21:35M. Anderson20:34

Pair 2B. Dumoulin15:41C. Ceci16:03

Pair 3J. Edmundson16:13B. Clarke15:03

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman17:04C. McDavid18:26R. Nugent-Hopkins15:37

Line 2K. Kapanen16:12V. Podkolzin16:16L. Draisaitl19:23

Line 3J. Roslovic11:33M. Savoie9:59I. Howard9:18

Line 4M. Janmark7:48T. Frederic9:19C. Lazar6:36

Pair 1M. Ekholm20:49E. Bouchard21:41

Pair 2D. Nurse22:08T. Emberson17:19

Pair 3S. Stastney13:21A. Regula9:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCorey Perry LAK Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20251 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.8, EDM 3.4	LAK 4, EDM 3
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	LAK 26.0, EDM 29.4	LAK 30, EDM 26
Win chance	EDM 58%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.5	5	1.58	1	38%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	3.0	4	0.85	0	38%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.9	1	0.81	0	31%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	8	1.31	2	41%	2
LAK A. Kempe	2.7	0	0.83	1	32%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	0	0.93	2	17%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.4	5	0.48	1	19%	1
LAK Q. Byfield	2.2	2	0.66	1	21%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.1	4	0.42	0	19%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	2	0.82	1	24%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.9	0	0.44	0	9%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	1.9	0	0.49	0	19%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.8	2	0.34	0	8%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.7	3	0.43	2	10%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.6	3	0.45	1	20%	1
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.5	0	0.60	1	24%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	0	0.40	0	16%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.3	2	0.34	0	12%	0
EDM I. Howard	1.3	0	0.21	0	11%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.3	3	0.44	0	11%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.3	1	0.33	1	12%	0
LAK J. Malott	1.2	0	0.16	0	9%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.2	0	0.26	0	12%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	2	0.21	0	4%	0
EDM S. Stastney	0.9	1	0.20	0	4%	0
LAK A. Lee	0.9	1	0.17	1	8%	1
EDM T. Frederic	0.8	0	0.17	0	10%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.8	0	0.21	0	5%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	0	0.23	0	8%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.7	0	0.18	0	3%	0
EDM A. Regula	0.7	1	0.11	0	3%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.7	0	0.19	0	3%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.6	0	0.18	0	3%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.5	2	0.15	0	7%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.5	3	0.13	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.