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Game Recap
LAK2
FinalWed, Dec 17, 2025Every game that night
FLA3

FLA beat LAK 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.03 expected goals to 3.34. B. Marchand led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). A. Turcotte had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. D. Tarasov stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
LAK1012
FLA0213
  1. 1st 13:39LAKJ. ArmiaPP0.10 xG
  2. 2nd 2:14FLAA. LundellPP0.10 xG
  3. 2nd 7:04FLAC. Verhaeghe0.21 xG
  4. 3rd 0:10FLAS. Bennett0.07 xG
  5. 3rd 4:48LAKK. Fiala0.02 xG

Team Stats

LAKFLA
29Shots on goal29
3.34Expected goals2.03
65Shot attempts56
225v5 shots on goal22
1/4Power play1/4
16Hits28
15Blocked shots21
8Penalty minutes8
12Giveaways10
5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 3.34 xGFLA 2.03 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdLAK goal, 13:39FLA goal, 2:14FLA goal, 7:04FLA goal, 0:10LAK goal, 4:48

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK28 on goal, 2 scored
FLA29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. FialaLW1013110018:203:21
A. LaferriereRW0115500017:190:54
J. ArmiaRW1012000410:390:47
A. KopitarC0000010021:053:21
A. KempeRW0002210221:003:20
Q. ByfieldRW0000020218:380:46
C. PerryRW000201-1015:021:53
A. KuzmenkoLW000000-1014:483:25
T. MooreLW0002010014:380:12
W. FoegeleLW0000000014:280:00
A. TurcotteC000601-109:290:00
S. HeleniusC000020006:220:00
B. ClarkeD011104-2018:240:52
D. DoughtyD0001010025:213:30
M. AndersonD0002200019:210:00
J. EdmundsonD000110-2017:170:01
B. DumoulinD000132+1016:380:00
C. CeciD000100+1016:350:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Forsberg29263.89757:43Loss
P. Copley000–0:00

FLA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. MarchandLW022311+1018:262:25
S. BennettC101422+1420:302:30
A. LundellC1013100217:201:51
C. VerhaegheC101421+1017:092:19
M. SamoskevichRW0112210013:261:54
S. ReinhartC0001000021:532:12
E. LuostarinenC0001120018:411:56
A. GreerLW0000310013:070:00
E. RodriguesC0003300012:031:01
J. BoqvistC0003300010:430:00
N. GregorLW000020026:560:07
L. KuninC000121006:140:00
A. EkbladD0111110021:301:54
J. PetryD011222+1015:541:01
S. JonesD0000020023:422:20
N. MikkolaD0000210021:330:00
G. ForslingD0000030019:440:08
U. BalinskisD000113+1014:230:07
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Tarasov29272.93160:00Win
S. Bobrovsky000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1A. Kopitar15:39A. Kempe16:11A. Laferriere12:40
Line 2K. Fiala12:48Q. Byfield14:03W. Foegele13:05
Line 3T. Moore11:02A. Turcotte9:29A. Kuzmenko11:23
Line 4J. Armia9:52S. Helenius6:22C. Perry12:04
Pair 1D. Doughty19:44M. Anderson17:18
Pair 2B. Clarke16:04J. Edmundson14:01
Pair 3C. Ceci14:03B. Dumoulin13:12

FLA

Line 1S. Reinhart15:44E. Luostarinen15:59A. Lundell12:17
Line 2C. Verhaeghe13:59S. Bennett14:45B. Marchand13:02
Line 3A. Greer12:43M. Samoskevich11:32E. Rodrigues9:40
Line 4J. Boqvist10:43N. Gregor6:49L. Kunin6:14
Pair 1S. Jones17:15N. Mikkola17:19
Pair 2A. Ekblad15:55G. Forsling15:55
Pair 3J. Petry14:53U. Balinskis14:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreLAK 2.6, FLA 2.9LAK 2, FLA 3
Total goals5.55
Shots on goalLAK 26.2, FLA 28.7LAK 29, FLA 29
Win chanceFLA 54%FLA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
LAK K. Fiala2.730.72128%1
FLA S. Bennett2.740.70128%1
FLA S. Reinhart2.610.88036%0
LAK A. Kempe2.520.76030%0
FLA B. Marchand2.530.81229%0
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.440.73127%1
FLA A. Lundell2.230.65120%1
LAK A. Laferriere2.150.45118%0
FLA E. Rodrigues2.030.48018%0
FLA M. Samoskevich2.020.41115%0
LAK Q. Byfield1.900.58019%0
LAK B. Clarke1.810.4519%0
LAK W. Foegele1.800.37018%0
FLA S. Jones1.800.45011%0
LAK T. Moore1.820.43018%0
FLA A. Ekblad1.610.3818%0
FLA E. Luostarinen1.510.46014%0
FLA G. Forsling1.500.3108%0
LAK D. Doughty1.410.54011%0
FLA A. Greer1.400.34014%0
LAK C. Perry1.420.36018%0
LAK J. Armia1.420.41117%1
LAK A. Kopitar1.300.69022%0
LAK J. Edmundson1.210.2704%0
FLA N. Mikkola1.200.1905%0
LAK A. Kuzmenko1.100.45019%0
FLA U. Balinskis1.010.2004%0
FLA N. Gregor1.000.1407%0
LAK M. Anderson0.920.2605%0
LAK B. Dumoulin0.910.2303%0
LAK C. Ceci0.910.2103%0
LAK A. Turcotte0.960.2308%0
FLA J. Boqvist0.830.24011%0
FLA J. Petry0.820.2013%0
FLA L. Kunin0.710.1207%0
LAK S. Helenius0.400.1106%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.