Game Recap: LAK 5, MIN 1, November 5, 2024

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Game Recap

LAK5

FinalTue, Nov 5, 2024Every game that night

MIN1

LAK beat MIN 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.93 expected goals to 1.19. T. Lewis led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Lewis had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. D. Rittich stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	0	2	3	5
MIN	0	1	0	1

2nd 7:31MINZ. Bogosian0.05 xG
2nd 14:30LAKW. Foegele0.51 xG
2nd 18:55LAKK. FialaPP0.11 xG
3rd 7:39LAKT. Lewis0.24 xG
3rd 14:12LAKQ. Byfield0.07 xG
3rd 16:14LAKT. LewisEN0.69 xG

Team Stats

LAKMIN

28Shots on goal24

3.93Expected goals1.19

58Shot attempts45

225v5 shots on goal19

1/1Power play0/4

25Hits11

13Blocked shots9

8Penalty minutes4

9Giveaways13

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 3.93 xGMIN 1.19 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK28 on goal, 5 scored

MIN24 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	1	1	2	5	1	0	+2	0	15:39	0:00
T. Moore	LW	0	2	2	0	1	1	+2	0	14:04	0:00
A. Laferriere	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	13:36	1:17
T. Lewis	C	2	0	2	6	2	0	+2	0	12:30	0:00
K. Fiala	LW	1	0	1	6	0	0	-1	0	18:08	1:17
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	17:49	1:17
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	15:16	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:41	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	11:23	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	7:59	0:00
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:46	1:17
A. Thomas	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	12:21	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+3	0	25:15	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	1	5	+2	0	27:01	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	21:14	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	17:19	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	16:29	1:17
K. Burroughs	D	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	2	11:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Hartman	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:39	3:34
F. Gaudreau	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	15:45	3:14
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	22:26	4:33
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	20:03	4:25
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	2	17:57	4:41
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:52	3:13
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:10	3:47
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	15:32	3:02
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	10:59	0:00
J. Lauko	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	10:45	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	10:28	1:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	9:54	0:04
Z. Bogosian	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	14:04	0:02
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	24:42	4:40
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:38	0:21
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	20:22	3:18
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	17:22	0:04
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:33	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	27	23	4	.852	59:32	Loss
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMats Zuccarello LAK First game back in St. Paul, his team until May 20260 SOG
HometownMikey Anderson LAK Plays near home (born in Roseville)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.8, MIN 3.2	LAK 5, MIN 1
Total goals	6.0	6
Shots on goal	LAK 28.2, MIN 28.6	LAK 28, MIN 24
Win chance	MIN 57%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.6	1	1.39	0	47%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.1	4	0.94	0	32%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.9	1	0.76	0	29%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.7	1	0.77	0	30%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.4	6	0.75	1	25%	1
LAK T. Moore	2.3	0	0.49	2	20%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.3	0	0.88	0	23%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.2	2	0.42	1	18%	1
LAK B. Clarke	2.0	1	0.54	0	6%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.0	1	0.56	1	23%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.0	2	0.41	2	20%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.9	2	0.52	0	21%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	1.8	5	0.53	2	15%	1
LAK P. Danault	1.8	0	0.51	1	19%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.7	1	0.37	0	6%	0
LAK A. Thomas	1.5	2	0.35	0	15%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.5	2	0.55	0	9%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.5	1	0.36	1	16%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.4	3	0.44	0	9%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.4	1	0.31	1	6%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	0	0.72	1	22%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.3	0	0.39	0	15%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.3	1	0.32	0	4%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.3	1	0.27	0	5%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.2	6	0.18	2	8%	2
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	1	0.21	0	13%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	0	0.22	0	5%	0
LAK A. Lee	1.1	0	0.17	1	8%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.1	3	0.33	0	6%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.1	1	0.19	1	3%	1
LAK T. Jeannot	0.9	0	0.19	1	10%	0
MIN J. Lauko	0.9	0	0.24	0	10%	0
MIN M. Foligno	0.9	0	0.34	0	15%	0
LAK K. Burroughs	0.8	0	0.10	0	3%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.5	1	0.17	0	3%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.4	2	0.23	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.