MIN beat LAK 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.33 expected goals to 2.43. R. Hartman led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Laferriere had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. F. Gustavsson stopped 28 of 29.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.43 xGMIN 1.33 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:29 | 4:46 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 | 4:45 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 2:38 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 | 3:16 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:18 | 1:09 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:56 | 1:08 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 4:46 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:56 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:05 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 24:25 | 3:57 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:23 | 1:57 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:12 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 57:46 | Loss |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Hartman | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 1:42 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:52 | 1:49 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:51 | 1:49 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:37 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:43 | 1:40 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:24 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:49 | 0:24 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:33 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:16 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:35 | 0:00 |
| B. Gaunce | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:22 | 0:36 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:09 | 1:39 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:37 | 0:02 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.9, MIN 2.7 | LAK 1, MIN 3 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 28.6, MIN 26.0 | LAK 29, MIN 22 |
| Win chance | LAK 53% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.1 | 1 | 0.83 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.7 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.6 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.2 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.2 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.0 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.0 | 6 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 1.9 | 3 | 0.45 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 1.9 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.8 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.7 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.5 | 4 | 0.55 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.4 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.4 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.3 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN B. Gaunce | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 0.9 | 4 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brazeau | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 3 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.