Game Recap: LAK 3, MIN 4 (SO), October 13, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK3

Final/SOMon, Oct 13, 2025Every game that night

MIN4

MIN beat LAK 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.37 expected goals to 4.01. LAK outshot MIN 34 to 26. A. Kempe led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Fiala had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. J. Wallstedt stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
LAK	0	0	3	0	3
MIN	3	0	0	1	4

1st 14:04MINJ. SpurgeonPP0.05 xG
1st 16:13MINK. KaprizovPP0.06 xG
1st 16:33MINM. BoldyPP0.11 xG
3rd 3:53LAKK. Fiala0.18 xG
3rd 6:22LAKQ. ByfieldPP0.19 xG
3rd 19:14LAKA. Kempe0.13 xG

Team Stats

LAKMIN

34Shots on goal26

4.01Expected goals2.37

63Shot attempts49

245v5 shots on goal12

1/3Power play3/6

24Hits23

10Blocked shots11

12Penalty minutes6

22Giveaways20

6Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 4.01 xGMIN 2.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK34 on goal, 3 scored

MIN26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kempe	RW	1	1	2	5	3	0	+1	4	20:14	3:42
Q. Byfield	RW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	2	19:43	1:47
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	2	3	2	+1	0	19:39	3:30
K. Fiala	LW	1	0	1	7	0	0	+2	0	18:43	3:33
J. Armia	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	15:01	0:56
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	18:00	3:29
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	17:06	0:53
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:20	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	15:11	0:00
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:16	0:57
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	9:58	0:00
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	8:23	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	25:13	0:44
B. Clarke	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	18:48	1:14
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	20:39	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	18:46	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:55	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	26	23	3	.885	63:14	OT loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	17:23	6:55
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	25:01	8:33
M. Boldy	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	2	24:27	6:33
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	1	1	5	2	0	0	0	21:36	7:00
M. Rossi	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:44	2:31
M. Johansson	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	13:24	1:31
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	16:03	1:40
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	13:44	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	13:38	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	10:28	1:46
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	10:02	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	9:21	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	1	0	1	2	0	3	-1	0	20:58	2:42
Z. Buium	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	18:13	7:10
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	26:00	0:16
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	22:05	0:18
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	18:04	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	34	31	3	.912	65:00	Win
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1A. Kopitar12:25A. Kempe12:59A. Kuzmenko12:36

Line 2P. Danault12:39W. Foegele13:04T. Moore12:29

Line 3K. Fiala12:19Q. Byfield12:14J. Armia10:55

Line 4A. Turcotte9:58J. Malott8:23A. Laferriere9:26

Pair 1D. Doughty18:14B. Dumoulin17:33

Pair 2J. Edmundson13:27B. Clarke15:40

Pair 3C. Ceci14:26M. Anderson12:13

MIN

Line 1M. Rossi13:58M. Boldy14:27K. Kaprizov13:33

Line 2V. Tarasenko10:28J. Ek10:19M. Johansson11:53

Line 3R. Hartman12:59M. Foligno11:27Y. Trenin11:24

Line 4D. Yurov10:02L. Ohgren9:21V. Hinostroza8:42

Pair 1J. Brodin19:30B. Faber20:24

Pair 2J. Spurgeon15:04J. Middleton15:05

Pair 3Z. Bogosian11:21Z. Buium11:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownMikey Anderson LAK Plays near home (born in Roseville)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 3.0, MIN 2.9	LAK 3, MIN 4
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	LAK 28.8, MIN 27.9	LAK 34, MIN 26
Win chance	LAK 51%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	2	1.19	1	42%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.4	3	0.98	1	33%	1
LAK K. Fiala	3.1	7	0.80	1	30%	1
LAK A. Kempe	3.1	5	0.88	2	33%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.0	5	0.69	1	26%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.5	2	0.53	0	22%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.4	2	0.48	0	20%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.3	1	0.44	0	18%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.3	3	0.52	0	22%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.3	1	0.72	2	24%	1
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.8	1	0.54	2	21%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.7	1	0.68	0	26%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.7	1	0.60	0	18%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.7	1	0.53	1	10%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.6	1	0.36	1	7%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.6	2	0.36	1	9%	1
MIN B. Faber	1.6	0	0.29	0	8%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.5	0	0.41	1	14%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.4	1	0.31	0	7%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.4	1	0.45	1	17%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	2	0.77	1	22%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.3	0	0.39	0	17%	0
MIN Z. Buium	1.2	3	0.30	1	6%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.2	0	0.24	0	7%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.2	1	0.27	0	12%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.2	2	0.29	1	13%	0
MIN L. Ohgren	1.2	2	0.21	0	10%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.2	1	0.27	0	5%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	1	0.21	0	5%	0
LAK C. Ceci	1.1	0	0.23	0	4%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	1.1	0	0.28	0	5%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	2	0.20	0	11%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	0	0.15	0	3%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	0.7	3	0.19	0	7%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.6	2	0.10	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.