LAK beat MTL 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.72 expected goals to 2.23. A. Kempe led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Fiala had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. D. Rittich stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 7:02MTLJ. Barron0.03 xG
- 1st 18:20LAKM. Anderson0.02 xG
- 2nd 1:37LAKA. Laferriere0.04 xG
- 3rd 17:02LAKA. Englund0.03 xG
- 3rd 19:12LAKA. KempeEN0.90 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 3.72 xGMTL 2.23 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:15 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:00 | 1:59 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:58 | 0:19 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:22 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:25 | 1:38 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 | 1:55 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:44 | 1:55 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:06 | 0:14 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:28 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:20 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 28:00 | 0:05 |
| M. Anderson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:57 | 0:03 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:03 | 2:11 |
| A. Englund | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| C. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:28 | 0:14 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Rittich | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Copley | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:20 | 5:04 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:07 | 5:07 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:10 | 5:01 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 16:42 | 4:59 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:47 | 0:19 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 14:44 | 3:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:24 | 2:10 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:10 | 1:43 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:14 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:11 | 2:40 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:13 | 0:48 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:50 |
| J. Barron | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:45 | 1:03 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 30:05 | 5:31 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:09 | 0:08 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:58 | 0:51 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 14:31 | 0:48 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:35 | 0:56 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 58:05 | Loss |
| C. Primeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 3.3, MTL 3.1 | LAK 4, MTL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 31.8, MTL 27.5 | LAK 32, MTL 27 |
| Win chance | LAK 52% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.4 | 3 | 0.81 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.2 | 4 | 0.91 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.8 | 6 | 0.93 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.7 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.1 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 2.0 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.0 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.9 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 1.9 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.9 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.9 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.7 | 1 | 0.85 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.6 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.32 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.3 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Barron | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK C. Jones | 0.8 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.7 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK A. Englund | 0.5 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 1% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.