LAK beat NSH 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.42 expected goals to 0.95. LAK outshot NSH 27 to 16. A. Kempe led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). W. Foegele had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. D. Kuemper stopped 16 of 16.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| NSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 13:24LAKA. Kopitar0.26 xG
- 3rd 0:35LAKK. Fiala0.21 xG
- 3rd 17:02LAKA. KempeEN0.90 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 3.42 xGNSH 0.95 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:09 | 3:26 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:13 | 3:28 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:13 | 3:39 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:13 | 3:50 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:37 | 3:31 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:05 | 2:42 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 | 3:06 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 1:41 |
| A. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10:20 | 0:23 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:27 | 0:34 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 23:10 | 0:55 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 18:38 | 3:50 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:05 | 0:36 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 20:05 | 1:05 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 | 2:39 |
| K. Burroughs | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 16 | 16 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:37 | 2:29 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:41 | 3:02 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:15 | 3:06 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:54 | 3:22 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 5 | 15:22 | 1:56 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:01 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:49 | 2:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:41 | 1:43 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:34 | 2:01 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:36 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:25 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 25:04 | 2:58 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:30 | 1:34 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:43 | 0:34 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:34 | 0:03 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 58:57 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.9, NSH 3.2 | LAK 3, NSH 0 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 28.9, NSH 31.0 | LAK 27, NSH 16 |
| Win chance | NSH 55% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.8 | 2 | 1.05 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.0 | 0 | 0.82 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.0 | 4 | 0.94 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 3.0 | 0 | 0.97 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.9 | 3 | 0.81 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.5 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.5 | 4 | 0.52 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.3 | 5 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.0 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.0 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.9 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 1.9 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.8 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK A. Thomas | 1.5 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.5 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.4 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.3 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NSH A. Carrier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH J. Lauzon | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH J. Parssinen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK K. Burroughs | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 0.8 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.