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Game Recap
LAK2
NSH3
NSH beat LAK 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.57 expected goals to 1.97. F. Forsberg led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Edmundson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Annunen stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| NSH | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 14:16NSHZ. L'Heureux0.42 xG
- 2nd 14:00NSHJ. Marchessault0.26 xG
- 3rd 9:24LAKQ. Byfield0.13 xG
- 3rd 13:23LAKA. Laferriere0.39 xG
- OT 1:03NSHN. Blankenburg0.47 xG
Team Stats
LAKNSH
24Shots on goal26
1.97Expected goals2.57
46Shot attempts44
225v5 shots on goal19
0/1Power play0/2
12Hits24
9Blocked shots9
4Penalty minutes2
13Giveaways12
1Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 1.97 xGNSH 2.57 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q. Byfield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:02 | 0:30 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:32 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:27 | 1:27 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 | 0:00 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:22 | 1:28 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:18 | 1:53 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:54 | 1:30 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:21 | 0:33 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:26 | 0:00 |
| A. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:19 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27:05 | 0:07 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 26:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:41 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 1:19 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 9:51 | 0:00 |
| K. Burroughs | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 4:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 60:48 | OT loss |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:45 | 2:29 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:14 | 2:25 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 | 1:59 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:02 | 1:23 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 1:21 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:27 | 2:28 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:08 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 1:32 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:24 | 1:52 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:09 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26:25 | 2:23 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:13 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:26 | 1:36 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:11 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:09 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 61:03 | Win |
| J. Saros | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.9, NSH 2.8 | LAK 2, NSH 3 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 28.2, NSH 27.8 | LAK 24, NSH 26 |
| Win chance | LAK 51% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.1 | 6 | 0.87 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.9 | 2 | 0.88 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.8 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.7 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.6 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.4 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.3 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.0 | 5 | 0.51 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.9 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 1.8 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.8 | 0 | 0.55 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.6 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.4 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.3 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.2 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.1 | 5 | 0.21 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK A. Thomas | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH J. Lauzon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.6 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK K. Burroughs | 0.4 | 0 | 0.06 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.