Game Recap: LAK 4, NSH 5 (SO), October 25, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK4

Final/SOSat, Oct 25, 2025Every game that night

NSH5

NSH beat LAK 5-4 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.49 expected goals to 3.80. LAK outshot NSH 40 to 25. R. O'Reilly led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Kopitar had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Saros stopped 36 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
LAK	1	2	1	0	4
NSH	1	2	1	1	5

1st 7:27LAKA. Kempe0.12 xG
1st 9:00NSHR. O'Reilly0.51 xG
2nd 0:36NSHF. Forsberg0.13 xG
2nd 1:35LAKJ. Armia0.03 xG
2nd 5:24LAKC. Perry0.18 xG
2nd 7:12NSHC. Smith0.18 xG
3rd 9:50LAKT. Moore0.38 xG
3rd 14:44NSHR. O'Reilly0.14 xG

Team Stats

LAKNSH

40Shots on goal25

3.80Expected goals3.49

77Shot attempts40

365v5 shots on goal18

0/3Power play0/2

10Hits23

7Blocked shots19

4Penalty minutes6

22Giveaways15

5Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 3.80 xGNSH 3.49 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK40 on goal, 4 scored

NSH25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Armia	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	12:09	0:00
A. Kempe	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	-1	0	18:50	4:40
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	-1	0	18:26	4:21
T. Moore	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	2	15:37	0:00
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:49	1:38
A. Turcotte	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	9:03	0:00
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	21:00	3:05
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	19:57	4:13
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:01	1:32
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:23	4:26
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	16:49	1:44
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:15	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	2	2	3	0	3	+3	0	17:27	2:18
J. Edmundson	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	15:49	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	23:37	1:26
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	21:23	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	21:23	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	20:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	25	21	4	.840	65:00	OT loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	2	1	3	4	0	2	+3	0	21:18	3:12
F. Forsberg	LW	1	1	2	2	2	1	+3	0	19:00	3:15
C. Smith	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	2	16:49	0:00
M. Wood	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+3	0	13:14	0:45
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	19:25	3:13
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	2	1	3	-2	0	19:00	3:12
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	0	18:18	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:16	0:48
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	13:45	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:56	0:47
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:44	0:48
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	9:07	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	-2	0	21:11	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	17:36	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	22:55	1:10
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-1	0	22:26	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	20:37	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	2	17:58	0:50

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	40	36	4	.900	65:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1A. Kopitar13:58A. Kuzmenko13:53A. Kempe13:36

Line 2W. Foegele13:14T. Moore14:24P. Danault15:08

Line 3K. Fiala12:20A. Laferriere13:34Q. Byfield15:40

Line 4C. Perry11:11J. Armia11:43A. Turcotte9:03

Pair 1C. Ceci19:10M. Anderson20:13

Pair 2D. Doughty20:07B. Dumoulin17:44

Pair 3J. Edmundson13:53B. Clarke14:14

NSH

Line 1E. Haula14:18J. Marchessault15:12M. Bunting12:09

Line 2R. O'Reilly14:56F. Forsberg14:26M. Wood12:29

Line 3M. McCarron14:21C. Smith14:00O. Wiesblatt12:50

Line 4L. Evangelista8:56F. Svechkov9:00S. Stamkos14:54

Pair 1A. Wilsby19:45N. Hague18:54

Pair 2S. Stastney16:51J. Barron17:08

Pair 3B. Skjei16:30N. Perbix16:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamErik Haula LAK First game back in Nashville, his team until Apr 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 3.1, NSH 2.9	LAK 4, NSH 5
Total goals	6.0	9
Shots on goal	LAK 27.4, NSH 28.6	LAK 40, NSH 25
Win chance	LAK 53%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.1	2	0.90	2	33%	1
LAK A. Kempe	2.9	4	0.93	1	33%	1
LAK K. Fiala	2.9	3	0.84	0	30%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.4	2	0.73	0	29%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.2	1	0.48	0	20%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.2	3	0.77	0	23%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.1	2	0.75	0	31%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.1	3	0.55	1	21%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.1	3	0.44	0	17%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.0	0	0.49	0	16%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.9	0	0.43	0	12%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.8	1	0.55	1	24%	1
NSH M. Bunting	1.8	1	0.50	0	20%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	4	0.67	3	24%	2
NSH E. Haula	1.6	0	0.40	0	17%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.6	1	0.29	1	12%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.5	2	0.59	0	17%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.5	3	0.67	1	24%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	3	0.37	2	9%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.4	1	0.55	0	13%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.4	3	0.38	2	15%	1
LAK A. Kopitar	1.3	4	0.84	0	23%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.3	1	0.22	0	4%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.3	2	0.26	0	12%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	1	0.26	0	12%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.2	2	0.32	0	7%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	2	0.23	1	9%	1
NSH J. Barron	1.0	0	0.22	0	8%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.0	1	0.15	1	4%	0
LAK C. Ceci	1.0	0	0.23	0	5%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.9	1	0.27	0	5%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	2	0.27	0	6%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.9	2	0.27	0	8%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	0.9	2	0.20	1	5%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	0.8	1	0.23	1	8%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.6	2	0.16	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.