Game Recap: LAK 3, NYI 2 (OT), October 22, 2026

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Game Recap

LAK3

Final/OTThu, Oct 22, 2026Every game that night

NYI2

LAK beat NYI 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.17 expected goals to 3.05. NYI outshot LAK 43 to 27. A. Panarin led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Schaefer had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. D. Kuemper stopped 41 of 43.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
LAK	2	0	0	1	3
NYI	0	1	1	0	2

1st 5:51LAKA. Panarin0.05 xG
1st 16:37LAKA. Panarin0.29 xG
2nd 14:06NYIV. EklundPP0.12 xG
3rd 7:06NYIM. Schaefer0.10 xG
OT 2:43LAKB. Clarke0.16 xG

Team Stats

LAKNYI

27Shots on goal43

4.17Expected goals3.05

60Shot attempts72

215v5 shots on goal37

0/2Power play1/2

17Hits25

18Blocked shots14

13Penalty minutes11

21Giveaways10

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 4.17 xGNYI 3.05 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK26 on goal, 3 scored

NYI41 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	2	0	2	4	0	0	+2	0	21:08	1:31
A. Laferriere	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	22:17	1:20
A. Kempe	RW	0	1	1	5	0	0	+3	0	20:09	1:31
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	16:52	0:29
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	14:53	0:22
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	14:27	0:49
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	13:34	0:07
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	13:20	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	12:14	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	10:18	0:22
J. Wright	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	10:09	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	5	9:44	0:00
B. Clarke	D	1	1	2	2	0	2	+2	0	19:54	1:31
E. Gustafsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	22:45	0:51
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	21:58	0:29
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	21:06	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	-1	2	18:41	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	17:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	43	41	2	.953	62:26	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Eklund	RW	1	0	1	3	6	0	+1	0	17:44	0:24
B. Schenn	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	17:17	3:05
E. Heineman	LW	0	1	1	6	0	0	+1	0	17:05	0:24
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	2	21:33	3:07
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	20:50	3:02
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:45	3:03
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	16:23	0:24
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	14:43	0:24
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:53	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:32	0:07
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	9:06	0:03
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:03	0:05
M. Schaefer	D	1	0	1	9	1	1	0	2	29:24	3:10
L. Stanley	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	5	20:02	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	2	18:10	0:24
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	-1	0	20:03	0:08
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	18:32	0:00
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	-1	0	13:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Varlamov	27	24	3	.889	62:17	OT loss
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1A. Panarin16:56A. Kempe16:20A. Laferriere18:54

Line 2M. Zuccarello12:48A. Lee12:56E. Haula12:02

Line 3S. Laughton11:50T. Moore10:12J. Armia10:42

Line 4C. Perry9:56J. Wright9:57S. Helenius9:24

Pair 1B. Dumoulin16:31M. Anderson18:01

Pair 2E. Gustafsson18:40B. Clarke16:07

Pair 3D. Doughty16:27J. Edmundson15:27

NYI

Line 1E. Heineman14:19V. Eklund14:30B. Schenn13:10

Line 2B. Horvat15:09S. Holmstrom14:39K. Palmieri13:42

Line 3A. Duclair12:34J. Pageau13:19O. Palat12:42

Line 4C. Cizikas10:25M. Chaffee9:03K. MacLean7:58

Pair 1L. Stanley18:59M. Schaefer22:46

Pair 2A. Pelech15:40R. Pulock15:23

Pair 3M. Kessel12:34T. DeAngelo16:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 15 overs hit (60%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
LAK A. Kempe	2.5	-110	-105	5	Over
LAK A. Laferriere	2.5	+105	-130	2	Under
LAK A. Panarin	2.5	+110	-130	4	Over
NYI B. Horvat	2.5	-140	+120	5	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	2.5	+136	-180	1	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	2.5	-130	+122	9	Over
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	-130	+115	2	Over
NYI B. Schenn	1.5	-110	-105	3	Over
LAK E. Haula	1.5	-105	-125	1	Under
NYI E. Heineman	1.5	-120	+100	6	Over
LAK M. Zuccarello	1.5	-105	-120	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.5	+110	-140	3	Over
LAK S. Laughton	1.5	+120	-130	1	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.5	+120	-150	1	Under
LAK T. Moore	1.5	-140	+130	3	Over

3 of 33 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+475	-900	0	Under
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+195	-240	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+275	-350	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+190	-285	2	Over
NYI A. Pelech	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+700	-1600	1	Over
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.5	+2400	-3500	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+190	-200	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+340	-450	0	Under
NYI C. Cizikas	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
LAK C. Perry	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+1300	-2500	0	Under
LAK E. Gustafsson	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+460	-500	0	Under
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+425	-550	0	Under
LAK J. Armia	0.5	+575	-750	0	Under
LAK J. Edmundson	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+525	-900	0	Under
LAK J. Wright	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
NYI K. MacLean	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+270	-370	0	Under
LAK M. Anderson	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
NYI M. Chaffee	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
NYI M. Kessel	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+340	-550	1	Over
LAK M. Zuccarello	0.5	+380	-600	0	Under
NYI O. Palat	0.5	+575	-1200	0	Under
NYI R. Pulock	0.5	+1800	-2500	0	Under
LAK S. Helenius	0.5	+1200	-2800	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+310	-390	0	Under
LAK S. Laughton	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+400	-600	0	Under

6 of 16 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+165	-215	1	Over
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+165	-225	1	Over
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+120	-135	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+165	-220	1	Over
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+170	-175	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+200	-250	1	Over
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+250	-250	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+260	-330	1	Over
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+180	-210	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+100	-120	0	Under
LAK M. Zuccarello	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+210	-275	1	Over
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under

8 of 16 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	-135	+125	1	Over
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+100	-115	1	Over
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	-180	+165	2	Over
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+120	-150	2	Over
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	-150	+135	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+105	-125	1	Over
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+200	-235	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+160	-180	0	Under
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+140	-165	1	Over
NYI J. Pageau	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	-110	-110	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	-155	+130	1	Over
LAK M. Zuccarello	0.5	-110	-105	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+102	-115	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+165	-190	1	Over
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+160	-195	0	Under

2 of 15 overs hit (13%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
NYI A. Duclair	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+280	-450	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+300	-600	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+225	-300	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under
NYI B. Horvat	0.5	+240	-300	0	Under
NYI B. Schenn	0.5	+270	-375	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NYI E. Heineman	0.5	+475	-1400	1	Over
NYI K. Palmieri	0.5	+260	-325	0	Under
NYI M. Schaefer	0.5	+195	-240	0	Under
LAK M. Zuccarello	0.5	+290	-450	0	Under
NYI O. Palat	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NYI S. Holmstrom	0.5	+350	-425	0	Under
NYI T. DeAngelo	0.5	+400	-1100	1	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
LAK D. Kuemper	23.5	+100	-125	41	Over
NYI S. Varlamov	23.5	-110	-125	24	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
LAK J. Edmundson	1.5	-120	-115	3	Over
NYI M. Schaefer	1.5	+135	-190	1	Under
NYI R. Pulock	1.5	-130	-110	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownAlex Laferriere LAK Plays near home (born in Chatham)1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.6, NYI 2.9	LAK 3, NYI 2
Total goals	5.5	5
Shots on goal	LAK 25.9, NYI 27.7	LAK 27, NYI 43
Win chance	NYI 55%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.2	5	0.91	0	35%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.9	9	0.81	1	19%	1
LAK A. Kempe	2.7	5	0.89	1	35%	0
LAK A. Panarin	2.7	4	1.08	2	34%	2
LAK A. Laferriere	2.6	2	0.63	1	24%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.4	1	0.72	0	27%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.0	3	0.45	0	19%	0
LAK M. Zuccarello	1.8	0	0.72	0	21%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.7	2	0.48	2	8%	1
NYI B. Schenn	1.7	3	0.67	1	23%	0
LAK E. Haula	1.7	1	0.41	0	17%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.6	6	0.34	1	19%	0
LAK S. Laughton	1.6	1	0.32	0	15%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.5	3	0.62	0	24%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.5	1	0.35	1	7%	0
NYI V. Eklund	1.4	3	0.38	1	14%	1
NYI A. Pelech	1.4	0	0.26	0	5%	0
LAK A. Lee	1.3	1	0.24	0	11%	0
NYI L. Stanley	1.3	0	0.33	1	7%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.2	0	0.29	0	14%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	2	0.50	0	17%	0
LAK J. Wright	1.2	2	0.14	0	7%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.1	1	0.39	0	17%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.1	2	0.31	0	15%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	0	0.19	0	3%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.1	0	0.32	0	14%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	1	0.25	0	11%	0
LAK E. Gustafsson	1.1	0	0.32	0	5%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.1	1	0.36	0	8%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.0	4	0.28	0	5%	0
NYI M. Chaffee	0.8	1	0.19	0	10%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	0	0.15	0	7%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.7	3	0.14	0	7%	0
NYI M. Kessel	0.7	3	0.15	0	3%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.7	0	0.21	0	4%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.6	0	0.19	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.