Game Recap: LAK 5, NYR 1, December 14, 2024

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Game Recap

LAK5

FinalSat, Dec 14, 2024Every game that night

NYR1

LAK beat NYR 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.82 expected goals to 2.35. A. Kempe led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). V. Gavrikov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. D. Kuemper stopped 31 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	2	3	0	5
NYR	0	1	0	1

1st 7:05LAKA. Turcotte0.23 xG
1st 15:06LAKW. Foegele0.49 xG
2nd 2:46LAKQ. Byfield0.07 xG
2nd 4:40LAKA. Kempe0.25 xG
2nd 5:04LAKP. Danault0.46 xG
2nd 12:17NYRF. Chytil0.01 xG

Team Stats

LAKNYR

32Shots on goal32

3.82Expected goals2.35

57Shot attempts59

265v5 shots on goal21

0/3Power play0/3

14Hits39

8Blocked shots12

11Penalty minutes11

21Giveaways23

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 3.82 xGNYR 2.35 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK31 on goal, 5 scored

NYR32 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	19:20	2:51
A. Kopitar	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	18:06	3:02
A. Kempe	RW	1	1	2	6	2	0	+1	0	17:42	2:37
W. Foegele	LW	1	1	2	5	0	0	+2	0	17:27	0:20
A. Turcotte	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	17:07	2:57
P. Danault	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	18:27	2:51
T. Jeannot	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+2	0	13:56	0:10
A. Thomas	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	11:55	0:00
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	19:53	5:43
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:43	2:57
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	9:42	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	4	19:48	0:03
B. Clarke	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+2	0	12:57	3:03
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	5	0	0	+1	0	24:23	0:25
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+4	0	19:36	0:17
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	17:46	2:44
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	12:35	0:00
K. Burroughs	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	7:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	32	31	1	.969	60:00	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Chytil	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	2	16:05	2:18
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-2	0	14:22	3:42
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-2	0	17:59	4:05
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	17:13	3:45
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	3	6	0	0	0	17:00	2:15
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	16:21	3:48
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	4	2	-1	0	15:12	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:13	1:55
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:37	0:00
B. Berard	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	13:32	0:00
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	13:13	2:11
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	12:01	0:00
V. Mancini	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	-3	0	14:56	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	24:07	3:47
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-1	0	21:03	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	20:19	0:00
Z. Jones	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	17:36	2:14
C. Mackey	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	5	15:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	21	16	5	.762	25:04	Loss
J. Quick	11	11	0	1.000	34:09

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamArtemi Panarin LAK Faces NYR, his team until Jan 20261 A, 1 SOG
HometownAlex Laferriere LAK Plays near home (born in Chatham)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.8, NYR 3.0	LAK 5, NYR 1
Total goals	5.8	6
Shots on goal	LAK 29.6, NYR 27.4	LAK 32, NYR 32
Win chance	NYR 53%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	3.1	6	0.87	2	33%	1
NYR A. Panarin	2.9	1	1.14	1	33%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.9	0	0.83	0	28%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.5	5	0.46	2	19%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	2.4	2	0.79	0	26%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.3	2	0.65	0	34%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.3	3	0.81	0	27%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.1	3	0.61	0	24%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.1	0	0.48	0	20%	0
NYR F. Chytil	1.9	5	0.44	1	18%	1
LAK P. Danault	1.8	3	0.53	1	18%	1
LAK Q. Byfield	1.8	3	0.51	2	15%	1
LAK B. Clarke	1.7	3	0.37	1	6%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	3	0.47	0	20%	0
NYR R. Smith	1.7	1	0.51	0	19%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.6	1	0.81	2	23%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.6	2	0.81	0	11%	0
NYR B. Berard	1.4	0	0.29	0	12%	0
LAK A. Thomas	1.3	0	0.31	1	14%	0
NYR K. Kakko	1.3	1	0.35	0	15%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.3	1	0.27	1	5%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.2	5	0.32	0	6%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	2	0.24	0	5%	0
NYR V. Mancini	1.1	0	0.23	1	5%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	1	0.22	0	5%	0
NYR C. Mackey	1.1	1	0.25	0	6%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	1.1	1	0.24	1	12%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.1	1	0.26	0	4%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.0	2	0.27	0	5%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.0	2	0.24	2	8%	1
NYR R. Lindgren	0.8	1	0.22	0	4%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.8	1	0.17	0	9%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.7	2	0.14	0	9%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.7	0	0.17	0	6%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.5	0	0.06	0	2%	0
LAK K. Burroughs	0.4	0	0.06	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.