Game Recap: LAK 4, NYR 1, March 16, 2026

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Game Recap

LAK4

FinalMon, Mar 16, 2026Every game that night

NYR1

LAK beat NYR 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.03 expected goals to 1.95. A. Laferriere led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Malott had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. D. Kuemper stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	1	2	1	4
NYR	0	0	1	1

1st 13:29LAKD. Doughty0.01 xG
2nd 4:31LAKM. Anderson0.29 xG
2nd 4:59LAKA. LaferrierePP0.39 xG
3rd 2:29NYRV. TrocheckPP0.08 xG
3rd 18:12LAKT. MooreEN0.80 xG

Team Stats

LAKNYR

26Shots on goal22

4.03Expected goals1.95

53Shot attempts51

205v5 shots on goal19

1/2Power play1/2

26Hits20

12Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways19

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 4.03 xGNYR 1.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK26 on goal, 4 scored

NYR22 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Laferriere	RW	1	2	3	3	2	0	+2	2	18:51	1:31
Q. Byfield	RW	0	2	2	3	2	0	+2	2	18:58	1:30
T. Moore	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	0	18:42	0:40
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	18:37	1:31
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:42	2:11
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:04	0:41
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	13:26	0:00
J. Wright	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:25	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	12:21	0:00
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	11:59	0:00
T. Ward	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:28	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	10:16	0:37
M. Anderson	D	1	1	2	1	1	1	+2	0	20:58	0:03
D. Doughty	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	21:18	0:08
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:37	2:03
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	20:08	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	18:25	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	16:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	22	21	1	.955	60:00	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Trocheck	C	1	0	1	2	4	0	-2	2	21:33	2:38
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	-2	0	19:45	2:41
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	20:41	2:44
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	0	20:33	2:38
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	18:21	0:36
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	16:16	0:30
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:19	0:10
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	12:35	0:00
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:09	0:23
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	10:42	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:21	0:26
J. Chmelar	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:41	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	-2	0	23:13	2:46
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	21:14	0:28
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	20:35	0:10
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	18:24	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:39	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	25	22	3	.880	58:57	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1T. Moore15:23A. Laferriere15:19Q. Byfield16:08

Line 2A. Kopitar15:14A. Panarin13:11M. Joseph13:11

Line 3J. Malott11:59S. Helenius12:21T. Ward11:28

Line 4S. Laughton13:42J. Wright12:10A. Turcotte9:39

Pair 1D. Doughty19:18M. Anderson19:03

Pair 2J. Edmundson17:44B. Clarke18:34

Pair 3B. Dumoulin16:16C. Ceci15:45

NYR

Line 1A. Lafrenière16:55G. Perreault16:43M. Zibanejad15:37

Line 2V. Trocheck16:39J. Miller15:58W. Cuylle15:19

Line 3C. Sheary11:30T. Kartye11:33N. Laba12:22

Line 4T. Raddysh8:55A. Edstrom10:41J. Chmelar7:40

Pair 1V. Gavrikov19:36A. Fox19:37

Pair 2B. Schneider19:03M. Robertson18:07

Pair 3W. Borgen15:37U. Vaakanainen14:33

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamArtemi Panarin LAK Faces NYR, his team until Jan 20261 A, 2 SOG
HometownAlex Laferriere LAK Plays near home (born in Chatham)1 G, 2 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.9, NYR 2.9	LAK 4, NYR 1
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	LAK 28.0, NYR 25.5	LAK 26, NYR 22
Win chance	NYR 50%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Panarin	2.9	2	1.21	1	34%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.8	3	0.57	3	23%	1
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	0	0.90	1	28%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.3	2	0.55	1	22%	1
NYR J. Miller	2.1	5	0.99	0	29%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	3	0.61	2	21%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.0	3	0.72	0	25%	0
LAK B. Clarke	2.0	2	0.52	0	9%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.0	2	0.83	1	25%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	1.8	0	0.49	0	21%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.7	2	0.84	1	13%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.6	2	0.55	0	18%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.5	3	0.78	1	23%	0
LAK S. Laughton	1.4	2	0.41	0	16%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.4	1	0.43	1	10%	1
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	0	0.36	0	8%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	1	0.28	0	6%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.2	0	0.32	0	12%	0
LAK J. Wright	1.2	1	0.23	0	10%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.1	2	0.24	0	6%	0
LAK T. Ward	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.1	2	0.36	0	14%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.1	0	0.28	0	9%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	0	0.20	0	4%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	0	0.34	0	14%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	2	0.22	0	5%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	1	0.24	2	5%	1
LAK M. Joseph	0.9	0	0.28	0	9%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.9	0	0.20	0	11%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.9	1	0.28	0	11%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.8	1	0.17	0	3%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.8	4	0.16	0	6%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.8	1	0.21	0	9%	0
NYR J. Chmelar	0.8	0	0.19	0	10%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.8	0	0.20	0	3%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.7	0	0.21	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.