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Game Recap
LAK6
NYR3
LAK beat NYR 6-3, with the chances close: 2.72 expected goals to 2.84. D. Doughty led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Kempe had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. D. Kuemper stopped 23 of 26.
Team Stats
LAKNYR
26Shots on goal26
2.72Expected goals2.84
59Shot attempts56
175v5 shots on goal23
1/3Power play1/1
19Hits24
13Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes8
14Giveaways18
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.72 xGNYR 2.84 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:52 | 3:53 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:17 | 3:10 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:01 | 1:04 |
| T. Ward | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:19 | 1:05 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:26 | 3:09 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:10 | 2:52 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:22 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:15 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 21:37 | 0:16 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:05 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:23 | 2:58 |
| B. Clarke | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 20:10 | 1:16 |
| M. Anderson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:23 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 59:19 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Kartye | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Miller | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:32 | 0:16 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:27 | 0:25 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:25 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:15 | 0:25 |
| G. Perreault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:09 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:12 | 0:00 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| N. Laba | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:49 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:31 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5:58 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 24:25 | 0:25 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:07 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Smits | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
LAK
Line 1J. Armia15:47S. Laughton15:31E. Haula13:18
Line 2A. Panarin13:35A. Laferriere13:24A. Kempe13:40
Line 3T. Moore12:37Q. Byfield13:18T. Ward12:33
Line 4C. Perry9:13S. Helenius10:10A. Lee9:00
Pair 1D. Doughty19:37J. Edmundson18:12
Pair 2B. Clarke17:12E. Gustafsson15:23
Pair 3B. Dumoulin15:26M. Anderson15:49
NYR
Line 1T. Kartye16:44J. Miller17:52O. Bjorkstrand16:00
Line 2M. Zibanejad15:47A. Lafrenière15:17G. Perreault14:54
Line 3P. Dorofeyev12:41N. Laba11:54W. Cuylle11:49
Line 4E. Tolvanen7:08L. Glendening6:02T. Raddysh5:49
Pair 1A. Fox20:08V. Gavrikov19:38
Pair 2M. Pettersson17:32B. Schneider16:35
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Prop Results
6 of 14 overs hit (43%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SOG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.5 | -130 | +110 | 7 | Over |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.5 | -102 | +100 | 2 | Under |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.5 | +125 | -140 | 2 | Under |
| LAK A. Panarin | 2.5 | -125 | +100 | 3 | Over |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.5 | +120 | -140 | 1 | Under |
| NYR P. Dorofeyev | 2.5 | -130 | +110 | 1 | Under |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.5 | +120 | -125 | 4 | Over |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.5 | -130 | +122 | 1 | Under |
| LAK E. Haula | 1.5 | -125 | -105 | 0 | Under |
| NYR G. Perreault | 1.5 | -120 | -105 | 1 | Under |
| NYR J. Miller | 1.5 | -130 | +114 | 6 | Over |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 1.5 | -170 | +130 | 2 | Over |
| LAK T. Moore | 1.5 | -150 | +122 | 0 | Under |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.5 | -150 | +125 | 4 | Over |
9 of 33 overs hit (27%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | G | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR A. Fox | 0.5 | +550 | -1200 | 1 | Over |
| LAK A. Kempe | 0.5 | +180 | -210 | 0 | Under |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 0.5 | +250 | -350 | 0 | Under |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 0.5 | +180 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| LAK A. Panarin | 0.5 | +195 | -240 | 1 | Over |
| LAK B. Clarke | 0.5 | +600 | -1400 | 1 | Over |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.5 | +2800 | -5000 | 0 | Under |
| NYR B. Schneider | 0.5 | +1200 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| LAK C. Perry | 0.5 | +550 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| LAK D. Doughty | 0.5 | +1400 | -2800 | 1 | Over |
| LAK E. Gustafsson | 0.5 | +1000 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| LAK E. Haula | 0.5 | +600 | -600 | 0 | Under |
| NYR E. Tolvanen | 0.5 | +550 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| NYR G. Perreault | 0.5 | +340 | -470 | 0 | Under |
| LAK J. Armia | 0.5 | +600 | – | 0 | Under |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 0.5 | +2200 | -3500 | 1 | Over |
| NYR J. Miller | 0.5 | +285 | -400 | 1 | Over |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.5 | +2500 | -4000 | 1 | Over |
| NYR M. Pettersson | 0.5 | +1800 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 0.5 | +215 | -240 | 0 | Under |
| NYR N. Laba | 0.5 | +800 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| NYR O. Bjorkstrand | 0.5 | +400 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| NYR P. Dorofeyev | 0.5 | +190 | -220 | 0 | Under |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 0.5 | +230 | -320 | 0 | Under |
| NYR S. Durzi | 0.5 | +900 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.5 | +1300 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| LAK S. Laughton | 0.5 | +600 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| NYR T. Kartye | 0.5 | +460 | -650 | 1 | Over |
| LAK T. Moore | 0.5 | +390 | -475 | 0 | Under |
| NYR T. Raddysh | 0.5 | +1000 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| LAK T. Ward | 0.5 | +700 | -1400 | 1 | Over |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 0.5 | +950 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 0.5 | +390 | -475 | 0 | Under |
9 of 20 overs hit (45%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR A. Fox | 0.5 | -130 | +106 | 0 | Under |
| LAK A. Kempe | 0.5 | +135 | -175 | 0 | Under |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 0.5 | +158 | -165 | 2 | Over |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 0.5 | +165 | -190 | 1 | Over |
| LAK A. Panarin | 0.5 | +100 | -115 | 1 | Over |
| LAK B. Clarke | 0.5 | +160 | -190 | 0 | Under |
| LAK D. Doughty | 0.5 | +310 | -375 | 2 | Over |
| LAK E. Gustafsson | 0.5 | +225 | -275 | 1 | Over |
| LAK E. Haula | 0.5 | +300 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| NYR G. Perreault | 0.5 | +255 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| NYR J. Miller | 0.5 | +126 | -135 | 0 | Under |
| NYR M. Pettersson | 0.5 | +340 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 0.5 | +116 | -130 | 0 | Under |
| NYR P. Dorofeyev | 0.5 | +220 | -285 | 1 | Over |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 0.5 | +205 | -225 | 0 | Under |
| NYR S. Durzi | 0.5 | +215 | -285 | 1 | Over |
| NYR T. Kartye | 0.5 | +300 | -425 | 1 | Over |
| LAK T. Moore | 0.5 | +300 | -425 | 1 | Over |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 0.5 | +320 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 0.5 | +320 | -360 | 0 | Under |
12 of 20 overs hit (60%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | P | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR A. Fox | 0.5 | -155 | +135 | 1 | Over |
| LAK A. Kempe | 0.5 | -165 | +145 | 0 | Under |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 0.5 | -125 | +115 | 2 | Over |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 0.5 | -132 | +125 | 1 | Over |
| LAK A. Panarin | 0.5 | -195 | +170 | 2 | Over |
| LAK B. Clarke | 0.5 | +115 | -140 | 1 | Over |
| LAK D. Doughty | 0.5 | +250 | -260 | 3 | Over |
| LAK E. Gustafsson | 0.5 | +180 | -235 | 1 | Over |
| LAK E. Haula | 0.5 | +190 | -230 | 0 | Under |
| NYR G. Perreault | 0.5 | +130 | -135 | 0 | Under |
| NYR J. Miller | 0.5 | -145 | +130 | 1 | Over |
| NYR M. Pettersson | 0.5 | +280 | -390 | 0 | Under |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 0.5 | -165 | +150 | 0 | Under |
| NYR P. Dorofeyev | 0.5 | -122 | +105 | 1 | Over |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 0.5 | -110 | -105 | 0 | Under |
| NYR S. Durzi | 0.5 | +190 | -215 | 1 | Over |
| NYR T. Kartye | 0.5 | +160 | -200 | 2 | Over |
| LAK T. Moore | 0.5 | +160 | -200 | 1 | Over |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 0.5 | +230 | -260 | 0 | Under |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 0.5 | +150 | -160 | 0 | Under |
6 of 14 overs hit (43%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | PPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR A. Fox | 0.5 | +175 | -215 | 1 | Over |
| LAK A. Kempe | 0.5 | +250 | -350 | 0 | Under |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 0.5 | +280 | -450 | 1 | Over |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 0.5 | +235 | -275 | 1 | Over |
| LAK A. Panarin | 0.5 | +230 | -250 | 1 | Over |
| LAK B. Clarke | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| LAK E. Gustafsson | 0.5 | +280 | -550 | 1 | Over |
| NYR E. Tolvanen | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| NYR J. Miller | 0.5 | +170 | -235 | 0 | Under |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 0.5 | +170 | -235 | 0 | Under |
| NYR P. Dorofeyev | 0.5 | +225 | -325 | 1 | Over |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 0.5 | +260 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| NYR S. Durzi | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
1 of 1 overs hit (100%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK D. Kuemper | 22.5 | -110 | -115 | 23 | Over |
3 of 4 overs hit (75%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | BLK | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.5 | -145 | – | 4 | Over |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.5 | -145 | +105 | 2 | Over |
| NYR S. Durzi | 1.5 | -130 | -110 | 3 | Over |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.5 | -130 | -110 | 0 | Under |
Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.9, NYR 3.0 | LAK 6, NYR 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 26.6, NYR 25.6 | LAK 26, NYR 26 |
| Win chance | NYR 52% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK A. Panarin | 2.8 | 3 | 1.22 | 2 | 37% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.8 | 7 | 0.99 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| NYR P. Dorofeyev | 2.7 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.7 | 2 | 0.73 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.4 | 1 | 0.96 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.2 | 0 | 0.53 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.2 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 2.0 | 4 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.9 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| NYR J. Miller | 1.8 | 6 | 0.91 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 1.8 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR G. Perreault | 1.7 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR O. Bjorkstrand | 1.7 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK S. Laughton | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.5 | 4 | 0.86 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| LAK E. Haula | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR T. Kartye | 1.3 | 2 | 0.46 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 3 | 9% | 1 |
| NYR S. Durzi | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK E. Gustafsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.20 | 2 | 4% | 1 |
| NYR E. Tolvanen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK C. Perry | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR N. Laba | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK A. Lee | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR L. Glendening | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR M. Pettersson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK T. Ward | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.7 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR T. Raddysh | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR A. Smits | 0.5 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.