Game Recap: LAK 6, SEA 5, April 15, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK6

FinalTue, Apr 15, 2025Every game that night

SEA5

LAK beat SEA 6-5 despite fewer good chances: 2.02 expected goals to 3.46. SEA outshot LAK 34 to 24. S. Helenius led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Rittich stopped 29 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	2	2	2	6
SEA	0	2	3	5

1st 15:14LAKS. Helenius0.05 xG
1st 16:23LAKA. TurcottePP0.10 xG
2nd 5:26SEAT. KartyeSH0.13 xG
2nd 13:24SEAB. MontourPP0.03 xG
2nd 16:05LAKW. Foegele0.12 xG
2nd 17:17LAKA. Laferriere0.38 xG
3rd 1:41LAKA. Kempe0.11 xG
3rd 2:38LAKS. Helenius0.08 xG
3rd 5:12SEAJ. Schwartz0.16 xG
3rd 13:34SEAM. BeniersPP0.21 xG
3rd 19:30SEAE. TolvanenPP0.16 xG

Team Stats

LAKSEA

24Shots on goal34

2.02Expected goals3.46

51Shot attempts67

205v5 shots on goal21

1/3Power play3/4

28Hits12

19Blocked shots18

8Penalty minutes6

9Giveaways7

1Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.02 xGSEA 3.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK23 on goal, 6 scored

SEA33 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kempe	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	-1	0	17:08	2:06
K. Fiala	LW	0	2	2	2	2	0	0	0	15:55	2:33
A. Turcotte	C	1	1	2	1	3	1	-1	0	14:20	1:34
S. Helenius	C	2	0	2	3	4	0	+2	2	13:27	0:00
A. Laferriere	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	16:41	2:21
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	16:23	2:12
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	4	15:47	2:21
W. Foegele	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	15:43	2:14
J. Malott	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	13:51	2:10
T. Lewis	C	0	1	1	1	3	2	+1	0	13:42	0:00
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	16:27	2:14
A. Thomas	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	11:45	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	2	2	2	2	3	+3	0	25:10	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	2	3	0	+2	0	24:01	0:03
J. Moverare	D	0	1	1	2	3	3	+1	0	20:15	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	20:30	2:22
K. Burroughs	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	2	12:26	0:00
C. Jones	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	11:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	34	29	5	.853	59:41	Win
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eberle	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	18:00	2:45
J. McCann	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	17:45	2:43
J. Schwartz	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	0	17:41	2:46
M. Beniers	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	15:48	1:39
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	15:44	2:40
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	2	15:39	2:43
S. Wright	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	15:33	2:41
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	0	1	3	0	2	-1	0	15:24	0:25
T. Kartye	LW	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	10:23	0:00
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	21:00	3:47
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:40	0:00
J. Hayden	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	9:04	0:00
B. Montour	D	1	0	1	5	1	1	-2	0	24:06	4:02
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	4	1	4	-2	4	22:15	2:57
J. Oleksiak	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	17:08	0:00
V. Ottavainen	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	14:24	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	19:25	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	18:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	24	18	6	.750	56:37	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 3.0, SEA 2.9	LAK 6, SEA 5
Total goals	5.9	11
Shots on goal	LAK 27.4, SEA 26.2	LAK 24, SEA 34
Win chance	LAK 51%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	2.9	2	0.79	2	30%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.7	3	0.79	2	31%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.5	5	0.46	1	14%	1
LAK W. Foegele	2.4	2	0.52	1	21%	1
SEA J. McCann	2.3	3	0.66	1	27%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.2	1	0.53	0	21%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.2	2	0.42	1	17%	1
SEA J. Schwartz	2.1	3	0.48	1	22%	1
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	4	0.56	1	12%	0
SEA M. Eyssimont	1.8	0	0.23	0	11%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.8	3	0.55	1	20%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.8	3	0.43	1	21%	1
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	4	0.51	1	22%	1
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.6	1	0.71	1	27%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.6	0	0.35	0	6%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.5	0	0.50	1	16%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.5	0	0.45	1	16%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.4	1	0.43	1	17%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.4	1	0.28	0	7%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.3	0	0.52	1	21%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.3	2	0.29	2	6%	0
LAK J. Malott	1.1	1	0.12	1	8%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.1	2	0.30	1	4%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.0	2	0.62	0	19%	0
SEA J. Hayden	1.0	3	0.10	0	7%	0
LAK T. Lewis	0.9	1	0.16	1	8%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.9	1	0.20	1	10%	1
LAK A. Turcotte	0.9	1	0.22	2	8%	1
SEA R. Evans	0.8	0	0.27	0	5%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	0	0.17	1	4%	0
LAK A. Thomas	0.8	0	0.20	0	10%	0
LAK C. Jones	0.7	0	0.14	0	3%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.6	2	0.11	1	2%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.5	3	0.11	2	6%	2
LAK K. Burroughs	0.3	1	0.05	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.