Game Recap: LAK 2, SEA 3 (OT), December 10, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK2

Final/OTWed, Dec 10, 2025Every game that night

SEA3

SEA beat LAK 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.03 expected goals to 2.75. V. Dunn led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Beniers had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Daccord stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
LAK	0	1	1	0	2
SEA	0	1	1	1	3

2nd 3:21SEAJ. McCannPP0.17 xG
2nd 8:16LAKA. LaferriereSH0.17 xG
3rd 14:40LAKK. FialaPP0.16 xG
3rd 19:34SEAM. BeniersPP0.12 xG
OT 1:21SEAV. DunnPP0.14 xG

Team Stats

LAKSEA

26Shots on goal33

2.75Expected goals4.03

59Shot attempts71

175v5 shots on goal19

1/5Power play3/7

18Hits18

18Blocked shots14

12Penalty minutes10

16Giveaways10

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.75 xGSEA 4.03 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK26 on goal, 2 scored

SEA33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	2	21:43	5:52
A. Kempe	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	2	20:32	5:44
K. Fiala	LW	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	2	20:08	6:00
J. Armia	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	18:42	5:13
A. Laferriere	RW	1	0	1	2	5	0	+1	0	16:54	1:53
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:39	1:53
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	15:39	2:03
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:40	0:14
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	13:02	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:39	2:23
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	6:42	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:19	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	0	2	23:33	5:46
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	22:40	0:16
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	20:03	0:06
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:11	2:01
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:04	0:01
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	2	15:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	33	30	3	.909	60:48	OT loss
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	2	2	1	4	2	-1	0	17:54	3:25
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	21:22	3:58
M. Beniers	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	18:47	4:10
J. Eberle	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:35	4:25
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	16:39	3:55
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	16:16	3:02
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	2	14:01	0:33
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	13:39	3:01
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:32	0:28
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:26	2:52
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:13	0:20
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	8:16	0:00
V. Dunn	D	1	2	3	3	0	1	0	0	21:29	4:42
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	5	3	0	-1	0	24:58	3:43
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	20:21	0:27
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:10	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	15:10	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	14:34	0:31

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	26	24	2	.923	59:50	Win
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1A. Kopitar12:59A. Kempe12:02A. Laferriere11:19

Line 2J. Armia10:30K. Fiala14:08Q. Byfield11:57

Line 3P. Danault10:36W. Foegele11:24T. Moore10:10

Line 4A. Turcotte6:19J. Malott6:42C. Perry6:43

Pair 1D. Doughty15:29M. Anderson16:08

Pair 2B. Clarke13:10J. Edmundson13:12

Pair 3B. Dumoulin13:05C. Ceci12:12

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle11:52M. Beniers11:51J. McCann10:40

Line 2M. Marchment13:14C. Stephenson11:25E. Tolvanen10:52

Line 3F. Gaudreau9:05R. Winterton9:33B. Meyers9:02

Line 4K. Kakko8:59S. Wright9:36J. Nyman8:16

Pair 1A. Larsson15:12V. Dunn15:05

Pair 2B. Montour16:56R. Lindgren13:54

Pair 3J. Oleksiak10:35R. Evans11:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.9, SEA 2.6	LAK 2, SEA 3
Total goals	5.5	5
Shots on goal	LAK 27.1, SEA 25.2	LAK 26, SEA 33
Win chance	LAK 55%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	2.9	3	0.81	1	30%	1
LAK A. Kempe	2.7	4	0.86	1	32%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.4	3	0.72	1	28%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.4	5	0.45	0	14%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.2	2	0.49	1	19%	1
SEA J. Eberle	2.1	1	0.62	1	23%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	1	0.70	0	22%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.0	3	0.55	3	12%	1
LAK B. Clarke	1.9	0	0.49	0	10%	0
LAK W. Foegele	1.9	1	0.42	0	19%	0
LAK T. Moore	1.9	3	0.50	0	20%	0
SEA M. Marchment	1.9	3	0.55	0	22%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	5	0.56	1	21%	1
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.6	1	0.41	2	19%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.5	1	0.42	0	19%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.4	4	0.43	1	18%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	2	0.75	1	23%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.4	0	0.46	0	15%	0
SEA J. Nyman	1.3	3	0.23	0	13%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.2	2	0.46	0	18%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.2	2	0.46	0	9%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.2	2	0.36	0	14%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	1	0.26	0	6%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	2	0.60	1	18%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	0	0.26	0	5%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.0	0	0.29	0	13%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.0	1	0.14	0	8%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.9	1	0.24	0	4%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.9	2	0.22	0	4%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	0	0.26	0	5%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	0	0.21	0	3%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.8	0	0.11	0	7%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	0.8	0	0.22	0	8%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	0	0.15	0	4%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.7	0	0.15	0	8%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	1	0.24	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.