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Game Recap
LAK2
SJS4
SJS beat LAK 4-2, with the chances close: 3.30 expected goals to 2.86. J. Walman led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Clarke had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. V. Vanecek stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| SJS | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
- 2nd 2:20SJSJ. Walman0.04 xG
- 2nd 3:18LAKA. Thomas0.53 xG
- 3rd 6:25SJSF. Zetterlund0.07 xG
- 3rd 8:52LAKA. Laferriere0.20 xG
- 3rd 11:02SJST. Toffoli0.17 xG
- 3rd 19:22SJSW. EklundEN0.81 xG
Team Stats
LAKSJS
28Shots on goal21
2.86Expected goals3.30
74Shot attempts48
225v5 shots on goal15
0/6Power play0/4
15Hits21
11Blocked shots24
8Penalty minutes8
13Giveaways12
10Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.86 xGSJS 3.30 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 4:07 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:23 | 4:22 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:06 | 1:54 |
| A. Thomas | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:06 | 1:57 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:14 | 4:40 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:48 | 4:48 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:45 | 4:33 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 3:45 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 | 3:55 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:12 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 10:33 | 0:12 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:12 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:50 | 4:58 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:15 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 19:46 | 0:12 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:55 | 3:43 |
| C. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Rittich | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 58:08 | Loss |
| D. Kuemper | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:16 | 3:29 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:26 | 3:48 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 3:58 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 15:11 | 1:37 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 3:44 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:09 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:31 | 0:00 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:36 | 3:36 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 1:08 |
| E. Cardwell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:57 | 0:01 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:46 | 2:51 |
| D. Gushchin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 | 1:53 |
| J. Walman | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 4 | 21:17 | 2:54 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -1 | 0 | 22:44 | 0:01 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | +2 | 0 | 24:51 | 0:53 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:10 | 0:01 |
| J. Thompson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 | 3:12 |
| M. Benning | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 59:08 | Win |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 3.9, SJS 2.5 | LAK 2, SJS 4 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 33.6, SJS 25.4 | LAK 28, SJS 21 |
| Win chance | LAK 70% | SJS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.1 | 2 | 1.05 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.8 | 4 | 0.73 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.7 | 4 | 0.67 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.5 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.2 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.1 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.1 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.0 | 5 | 0.58 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 1.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 3 | 11% | 1 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.9 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.8 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.7 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.6 | 1 | 0.97 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.5 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.5 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS D. Gushchin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.3 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| LAK A. Thomas | 1.2 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK A. Lee | 1.2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS J. Thompson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK C. Jones | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS M. Benning | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.