Game Recap: LAK 4, SJS 3, October 28, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK4

FinalTue, Oct 28, 2025Every game that night

SJS3

LAK beat SJS 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 1.36 expected goals to 4.24. SJS outshot LAK 40 to 14. P. Kurashev led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Misa had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. D. Kuemper stopped 37 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	1	2	1	4
SJS	0	2	1	3

1st 10:54LAKC. Perry0.27 xG
2nd 3:21LAKJ. Malott0.07 xG
2nd 6:43LAKD. Doughty0.03 xG
2nd 15:33SJSW. Smith0.12 xG
2nd 17:16SJSP. Kurashev0.16 xG
3rd 4:48SJSA. Wennberg0.05 xG
3rd 13:20LAKB. Clarke0.04 xG

Team Stats

LAKSJS

14Shots on goal40

1.36Expected goals4.24

34Shot attempts79

125v5 shots on goal23

0/1Power play0/5

14Hits17

23Blocked shots12

10Penalty minutes2

14Giveaways9

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 1.36 xGSJS 4.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK14 on goal, 4 scored

SJS40 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Perry	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+3	0	12:33	0:15
A. Kempe	RW	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	20:48	1:41
A. Laferriere	RW	0	1	1	0	0	2	-1	0	15:04	0:19
A. Turcotte	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	10:59	0:00
J. Malott	LW	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	4	7:08	0:00
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	19:30	1:46
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:37	1:41
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:25	1:45
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:59	0:00
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	14:55	1:41
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:24	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	10:21	0:19
J. Edmundson	D	0	2	2	1	0	0	-1	2	20:01	0:00
B. Clarke	D	1	1	2	1	0	2	+3	2	13:22	0:14
B. Dumoulin	D	0	1	1	1	1	4	+1	0	21:44	0:00
D. Doughty	D	1	0	1	1	1	4	+1	2	20:37	0:19
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	20:52	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	20:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	40	37	3	.925	60:00	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Wennberg	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	22:56	4:16
P. Kurashev	C	1	1	2	4	0	1	+2	0	22:54	3:07
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	24:46	6:08
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	-1	0	19:52	6:02
W. Smith	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	18:45	6:08
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	16:49	6:07
J. Skinner	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	11:39	2:58
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	12:50	0:07
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	12:19	0:07
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	11:05	0:07
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	8	0	1	0	0	10:10	3:06
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	7:04	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	-2	0	25:33	6:23
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	22:12	2:53
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	2	20:10	0:07
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	17:33	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:04	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	11:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	14	10	4	.714	57:28	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1A. Kuzmenko13:40A. Kopitar15:09A. Kempe16:20

Line 2P. Danault8:39T. Moore12:16J. Armia9:31

Line 3Q. Byfield13:05K. Fiala13:14A. Laferriere9:44

Line 4C. Perry12:18A. Turcotte10:59J. Malott7:08

Pair 1D. Doughty18:09B. Dumoulin16:48

Pair 2M. Anderson16:47C. Ceci15:49

Pair 3J. Edmundson14:36B. Clarke13:08

SJS

Line 1P. Kurashev19:02W. Eklund16:35A. Wennberg17:01

Line 2W. Smith11:21M. Celebrini12:34T. Toffoli9:26

Line 3B. Goodrow10:35T. Dellandrea11:51R. Reaves7:04

Line 4J. Skinner8:41C. Graf11:22M. Misa7:04

Pair 1D. Orlov19:02T. Liljegren20:03

Pair 2J. Klingberg17:54M. Ferraro15:50

Pair 3V. Desharnais10:06S. Dickinson11:49

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayAlex Laferriere LAK Turns 24 that day1 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 3.7, SJS 2.7	LAK 4, SJS 3
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	LAK 30.9, SJS 26.0	LAK 14, SJS 40
Win chance	LAK 65%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	3.1	1	1.11	1	38%	0
LAK K. Fiala	3.1	2	0.98	0	34%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	3.0	4	0.87	1	27%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.8	3	0.69	1	30%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.5	0	0.55	1	21%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.4	2	0.91	0	27%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.3	0	0.63	0	25%	0
SJS J. Skinner	2.1	2	0.54	1	25%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.1	3	0.68	1	20%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.0	3	0.71	1	22%	1
LAK C. Perry	1.8	2	0.57	2	26%	1
SJS D. Orlov	1.7	2	0.45	0	9%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.7	1	0.47	2	9%	1
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.6	0	0.80	0	28%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.6	0	0.68	0	20%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.5	0	0.31	0	8%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.5	1	0.59	1	13%	1
LAK A. Kopitar	1.5	0	0.98	0	26%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.5	0	0.46	0	18%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.4	3	0.37	0	8%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.3	4	0.42	2	15%	1
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	2	0.43	2	14%	1
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	1	0.21	0	5%	0
LAK C. Ceci	1.1	2	0.28	0	5%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.1	0	0.29	0	12%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.1	8	0.44	0	14%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	1.0	1	0.30	1	5%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.0	0	0.29	0	6%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	1	0.25	2	5%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.0	1	0.12	0	4%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	0.9	0	0.27	1	9%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.8	2	0.20	0	7%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.8	1	0.14	1	8%	1
SJS B. Goodrow	0.7	2	0.16	0	8%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.6	0	0.11	0	1%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.4	0	0.10	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.