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Game Recap
LAK4
Final/OTSat, Oct 3, 2026Every game that night
SJS5

SJS beat LAK 5-4 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.79 expected goals to 3.68. LAK outshot SJS 35 to 25. I. Chernyshov led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Clarke had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. Y. Askarov stopped 31 of 35.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
LAK11204
SJS03115
  1. 1st 15:50LAKA. KempePP0.15 xG
  2. 2nd 1:48SJST. ToffoliPP0.33 xG
  3. 2nd 9:52SJSK. Sherwood0.02 xG
  4. 2nd 12:32SJSN. Allan0.06 xG
  5. 2nd 19:58LAKQ. ByfieldPP0.09 xG
  6. 3rd 4:08SJSI. Chernyshov0.08 xG
  7. 3rd 10:21LAKE. Haula0.08 xG
  8. 3rd 15:00LAKA. Panarin0.10 xG
  9. OT 3:18SJSI. Chernyshov0.08 xG

Team Stats

LAKSJS
35Shots on goal25
3.68Expected goals1.79
68Shot attempts46
275v5 shots on goal19
2/3Power play1/2
19Hits23
12Blocked shots11
4Penalty minutes6
18Giveaways23
3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 3.68 xGSJS 1.79 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdOTLAK goal, 15:50SJS goal, 1:48SJS goal, 9:52SJS goal, 12:32LAK goal, 19:58SJS goal, 4:08LAK goal, 10:21LAK goal, 15:00SJS goal, 3:18

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK34 on goal, 4 scored
SJS24 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
Q. ByfieldRW112400-1022:403:31
A. PanarinLW1124000022:213:31
A. KempeRW1126200022:003:04
M. ZuccarelloRW011100-1019:183:03
E. HaulaLW101200-1014:450:00
A. LaferriereRW0000310216:450:27
T. MooreLW000200-1016:070:00
A. TurcotteC0000200015:150:28
S. LaughtonC0000400013:300:00
J. ArmiaRW000244-1013:270:00
C. PerryRW000300009:570:00
B. ClarkeD022502-2020:443:04
E. GustafssonD011200+1017:150:27
D. DoughtyD000011+1220:120:00
C. CeciD000212-1017:380:00
M. AndersonD000111-2016:250:00
B. DumoulinD0000100014:560:00
J. EdmundsonD0001010013:170:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Forsberg25205.80062:52OT loss
D. Kuemper000–0:00

SJS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
I. ChernyshovLW213200+3016:232:25
M. CelebriniC022202+1221:423:06
T. ToffoliC112311+2014:311:24
I. StenbergLW011001-1015:371:25
M. MisaC011010+2014:140:41
K. SherwoodLW101250+1011:490:00
A. WennbergC000101-1018:433:06
W. SmithC000211-1018:412:23
C. GrafRW000120-1216:430:00
M. MarchmentLW000120-1016:230:42
B. GoodrowC000130+1011:550:00
Z. OstapchukC000331+1010:140:00
J. TroubaD011121+1020:490:00
N. AllanD1012010216:000:00
D. NurseD000020+1021:510:00
L. CagnoniD0003120021:213:07
M. KesselringD000000+1021:150:00
D. OrlovD000100-1018:120:41
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
Y. Askarov35314.88663:18Win
A. Nedeljkovic000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1A. Panarin17:11Q. Byfield17:06A. Kempe17:25
Line 2A. Laferriere15:24M. Zuccarello14:23A. Turcotte14:26
Line 3E. Haula12:30J. Armia11:51T. Moore14:19
Line 4C. Perry9:57S. Laughton11:42
Pair 1E. Gustafsson15:40B. Clarke14:15
Pair 2D. Doughty19:01B. Dumoulin14:56
Pair 3M. Anderson14:03C. Ceci15:17

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini16:11M. Marchment15:15W. Smith14:49
Line 2A. Wennberg13:10C. Graf15:12I. Stenberg13:01
Line 3T. Toffoli13:07I. Chernyshov12:59M. Misa13:33
Line 4K. Sherwood10:57Z. Ostapchuk9:16B. Goodrow9:19
Pair 1D. Nurse20:03M. Kesselring19:08
Pair 2J. Trouba17:36N. Allan14:17
Pair 3D. Orlov17:05L. Cagnoni16:17

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 21 overs hit (38%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
SJS M. Celebrini3.5-115-1082Under
LAK A. Kempe2.5-165+1506Over
LAK A. Laferriere2.5+122-1450Under
LAK A. Panarin2.5-148+1204Over
LAK M. Zuccarello2.5+150-1651Under
LAK Q. Byfield2.5-115-1084Over
SJS W. Smith2.5+105-1302Under
LAK B. Clarke1.5-160+1405Over
LAK D. Doughty1.5-115-1150Under
SJS D. Nurse1.5-170+1300Under
SJS D. Orlov1.5+120-1501Under
LAK E. Haula1.5-140+1252Over
LAK J. Edmundson1.5+140-1501Under
SJS J. Trouba1.5+105-1351Under
SJS L. Cagnoni1.5-150+1203Over
SJS M. Kesselring1.5+115-1450Under
SJS M. Marchment1.5-140+1201Under
SJS M. Misa1.5-148+1140Under
LAK S. Laughton1.5-135+1100Under
LAK T. Moore1.5-145+1302Over
SJS T. Toffoli1.5-130+1053Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreLAK 3.2, SJS 3.0LAK 4, SJS 5
Total goals6.29
Shots on goalLAK 27.6, SJS 26.7LAK 35, SJS 25
Win chanceLAK 53%SJS won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
SJS M. Celebrini3.321.14232%0
LAK A. Laferriere2.800.66024%0
LAK A. Panarin2.741.15235%1
LAK A. Kempe2.760.91235%1
LAK T. Moore2.620.60024%0
LAK Q. Byfield2.540.70225%1
SJS W. Smith2.220.77025%0
SJS K. Sherwood2.020.48120%1
LAK M. Zuccarello2.010.86122%0
SJS D. Nurse1.900.3209%0
SJS J. Trouba1.910.3318%0
SJS M. Marchment1.910.63023%0
SJS T. Toffoli1.830.49220%1
LAK S. Laughton1.700.38016%0
LAK B. Clarke1.650.49210%0
LAK E. Haula1.620.44117%1
SJS I. Chernyshov1.620.56319%2
SJS C. Graf1.510.50018%0
SJS L. Cagnoni1.430.3406%0
SJS M. Misa1.300.42115%0
LAK D. Doughty1.300.48012%0
LAK J. Armia1.220.32015%0
SJS A. Wennberg1.210.57016%0
SJS M. Kesselring1.100.1904%0
LAK A. Turcotte1.100.2809%0
SJS D. Orlov1.110.3706%0
LAK E. Gustafsson1.120.3817%0
LAK J. Edmundson1.110.2405%0
LAK C. Perry1.130.33016%0
SJS B. Goodrow0.810.1708%0
LAK M. Anderson0.810.2806%0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk0.830.1207%0
LAK C. Ceci0.720.1904%0
LAK B. Dumoulin0.600.2204%0
SJS N. Allan0.520.1913%1

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.