Game Recap: LAK 2, STL 1 (OT), October 21, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK2

Final/OTTue, Oct 21, 2025Every game that night

STL1

LAK beat STL 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.46 expected goals to 2.25. LAK outshot STL 28 to 18. A. Kempe led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Dumoulin had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. D. Kuemper stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
LAK	0	1	0	1	2
STL	0	0	1	0	1

2nd 1:47LAKA. Laferriere0.19 xG
3rd 2:18STLJ. FaulkPP0.14 xG
OT 1:50LAKA. KempePP0.07 xG

Team Stats

LAKSTL

28Shots on goal18

1.46Expected goals2.25

47Shot attempts46

245v5 shots on goal15

1/3Power play1/3

13Hits20

14Blocked shots9

9Penalty minutes11

18Giveaways12

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 1.46 xGSTL 2.25 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK28 on goal, 2 scored

STL18 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kempe	RW	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	18:33	2:34
K. Fiala	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	17:10	2:59
A. Laferriere	RW	1	0	1	2	2	3	+1	0	15:28	0:00
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:52	2:48
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	20:51	2:49
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:33	1:24
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:21	1:27
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	15:36	1:27
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:06	0:04
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	14:41	2:26
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	5	9:08	0:03
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:06	0:06
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	26:20	1:21
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	23:02	0:29
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	20:14	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	16:38	0:07
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:41	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	14:55	1:32

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	18	17	1	.944	61:50	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	21:02	3:59
J. Kyrou	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	20:04	4:02
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	22:31	4:02
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	2	19:48	1:39
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	18:41	4:01
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:59	1:30
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:38	1:36
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:53	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	12:35	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	10:13	0:00
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:48	1:39
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6:55	0:00
J. Faulk	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	2	23:37	2:03
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	26:13	3:37
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	25:38	0:07
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	23:17	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	9:43	0:00
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	28	26	2	.929	61:50	OT loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1K. Fiala13:32Q. Byfield15:46J. Armia13:04

Line 2P. Danault12:57T. Moore12:46W. Foegele13:15

Line 3A. Laferriere13:14A. Kuzmenko11:50A. Kempe14:22

Line 4A. Turcotte9:00J. Malott9:05C. Perry12:15

Pair 1D. Doughty21:15B. Dumoulin17:26

Pair 2M. Anderson19:16C. Ceci15:33

Pair 3J. Edmundson13:46B. Clarke13:23

STL

Line 1B. Schenn18:04J. Kyrou16:02D. Holloway18:13

Line 2R. Thomas13:23J. Neighbours13:29P. Buchnevich11:32

Line 3N. Bjugstad9:46N. Walker11:02A. Texier6:55

Line 4M. Joseph12:08P. Suter11:38J. Snuggerud8:09

Pair 1J. Faulk20:31P. Broberg21:15

Pair 2C. Parayko22:50C. Fowler19:55

Pair 3M. Kessel8:55T. Tucker7:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.9, STL 3.1	LAK 2, STL 1
Total goals	6.0	3
Shots on goal	LAK 26.3, STL 26.7	LAK 28, STL 18
Win chance	STL 54%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	2.9	3	0.77	1	31%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.8	2	0.83	2	33%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.6	1	0.77	1	31%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.2	1	0.70	0	24%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.2	1	0.45	0	20%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.1	0	0.51	0	22%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	3	0.68	0	23%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.0	2	0.39	1	16%	1
STL C. Parayko	1.9	1	0.42	0	11%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.8	1	0.52	0	25%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.8	0	0.76	0	25%	0
STL P. Suter	1.8	1	0.56	0	23%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	3	0.43	1	8%	1
STL J. Snuggerud	1.7	0	0.52	0	19%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.6	1	0.94	1	22%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.6	3	0.62	0	21%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.5	1	0.57	0	18%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.5	2	0.62	1	25%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.4	3	0.54	0	9%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.4	1	0.56	0	24%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.4	2	0.33	0	7%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.4	1	0.47	0	10%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.3	1	0.34	0	8%	0
STL N. Bjugstad	1.3	0	0.26	0	13%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.3	1	0.34	0	14%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.2	1	0.30	0	10%	0
STL N. Walker	1.1	0	0.29	0	13%	0
STL A. Texier	1.0	1	0.27	0	11%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.9	2	0.20	0	4%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	1	0.23	0	5%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.9	0	0.18	0	6%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.9	4	0.24	0	4%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	0.8	1	0.23	0	8%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.7	0	0.11	0	6%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.6	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.