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Game Recap
LAK3
VAN4
VAN beat LAK 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.45 expected goals to 3.23. LAK outshot VAN 34 to 25. J. DeBrusk led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. DeBrusk had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. K. Lankinen stopped 31 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| VAN | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 9:21VANE. Pettersson0.02 xG
- 1st 17:15LAKQ. Byfield0.31 xG
- 2nd 0:52VANJ. DeBruskPP0.50 xG
- 2nd 1:04LAKA. Kempe0.19 xG
- 2nd 2:17LAKA. Laferriere0.25 xG
- 2nd 9:20VANZ. Buium0.21 xG
- OT 2:58VANJ. DeBrusk0.16 xG
Team Stats
LAKVAN
34Shots on goal25
3.23Expected goals2.45
54Shot attempts49
315v5 shots on goal18
0/2Power play1/2
18Hits20
13Blocked shots8
11Penalty minutes11
10Giveaways17
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 3.23 xGVAN 2.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Laferriere | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:34 | 3:06 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:19 | 0:54 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:01 | 3:45 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:40 | 3:05 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:22 | 3:11 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:55 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:42 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:04 |
| J. Wright | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 6:22 | 0:03 |
| T. Ward | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:52 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:24 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:20 | 0:34 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:39 | 3:23 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:50 | 0:12 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:25 | 0:03 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:03 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 62:34 | OT loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:02 | 2:48 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:46 | 2:48 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:00 | 2:48 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:08 | 2:48 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:34 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:39 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:39 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:39 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:00 |
| T. Mueller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:25 | 0:00 |
| C. Douglas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:12 | 0:00 |
| Z. Buium | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:00 | 0:39 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 23:46 | 2:48 |
| T. Willander | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:20 | 0:39 |
| K. Kudryavtsev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 34 | 31 | 3 | .912 | 62:58 | Win |
| N. Tolopilo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
LAK
Line 1A. Kopitar16:55A. Panarin17:05A. Kempe15:29
Line 2A. Laferriere15:00T. Moore14:15Q. Byfield15:08
Line 3S. Laughton13:21J. Wright13:06J. Armia12:29
Line 4S. Helenius5:24T. Ward5:52M. Joseph6:19
Pair 1D. Doughty18:05M. Anderson18:12
Pair 2J. Edmundson15:44B. Clarke16:35
Pair 3B. Dumoulin15:51C. Ceci15:55
VAN
Line 1T. Blueger16:20B. Boeser15:09L. Ohgren14:03
Line 2E. Pettersson12:37N. Hoglander13:58J. DeBrusk12:38
Line 3D. O'Connor14:07L. Karlsson12:44M. Rossi11:50
Line 4A. Räty11:02T. Mueller9:01C. Douglas6:48
Pair 2M. Pettersson17:52T. Willander16:14
Pair 3K. Kudryavtsev13:47E. Pettersson12:01
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 3.2, VAN 3.0 | LAK 3, VAN 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 27.7, VAN 26.5 | LAK 34, VAN 25 |
| Win chance | LAK 52% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.8 | 3 | 0.67 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| LAK A. Panarin | 2.6 | 1 | 1.14 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.5 | 5 | 0.95 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.5 | 6 | 0.56 | 2 | 26% | 2 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.3 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.3 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.1 | 3 | 0.65 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.9 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.9 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.79 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.7 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN L. Ohgren | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN M. Rossi | 1.5 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK S. Laughton | 1.5 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.3 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK J. Wright | 1.3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.2 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN T. Willander | 0.9 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN Z. Buium | 0.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK T. Ward | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN C. Douglas | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN T. Mueller | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| LAK M. Joseph | 0.6 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.