Game Recap: LAK 1, WPG 5, January 9, 2026

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Game Recap

LAK1

FinalFri, Jan 9, 2026Every game that night

WPG5

WPG beat LAK 5-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.36 expected goals to 3.20. M. Scheifele led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Malott had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. E. Comrie stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	0	1	0	1
WPG	2	3	0	5

1st 1:31WPGV. Namestnikov0.05 xG
1st 18:05WPGC. Koepke0.16 xG
2nd 2:07WPGJ. Toews0.37 xG
2nd 9:32LAKQ. Byfield0.39 xG
2nd 12:35WPGM. ScheifelePP0.11 xG
2nd 19:17WPGM. Scheifele0.08 xG

Team Stats

LAKWPG

24Shots on goal20

3.20Expected goals2.36

80Shot attempts48

215v5 shots on goal16

0/3Power play1/2

22Hits23

12Blocked shots22

4Penalty minutes4

8Giveaways16

7Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 3.20 xGWPG 2.36 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK23 on goal, 1 scored

WPG20 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	20:21	4:42
W. Foegele	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:38	1:24
T. Ward	RW	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	15:30	0:48
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	4	3	1	-1	2	20:31	4:44
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-2	2	19:49	4:08
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:49	4:38
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:45	0:50
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-2	0	15:21	0:45
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	-3	0	14:05	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	12:23	0:03
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	11:53	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	21:28	1:23
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+1	0	20:26	4:09
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	17:37	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	17:13	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	16:17	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:36	0:06
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	5:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	16	11	5	.688	40:00	Loss
A. Forsberg	4	4	0	1.000	20:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	2	0	2	3	0	0	+1	0	20:21	2:12
G. Vilardi	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	+1	0	16:33	2:08
C. Perfetti	C	0	2	2	3	0	1	+1	0	12:46	0:51
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	20:46	2:12
J. Toews	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	15:19	2:06
V. Namestnikov	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	13:42	0:51
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	11:59	0:55
T. Pearson	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	11:42	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	1	0	1	1	4	0	+1	0	9:54	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:32	0:51
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+2	0	14:16	0:00
D. Zhilkin	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:27	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+2	0	20:47	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	1	1	0	3	4	+1	2	18:09	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	16:02	0:51
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	+1	0	23:54	0:06
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	23:06	2:12
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	+1	0	15:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
C. Hellebuyck	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1K. Fiala15:47A. Kuzmenko15:11A. Turcotte15:32

Line 2Q. Byfield13:53W. Foegele12:42T. Ward14:42

Line 3A. Kempe15:08A. Laferriere12:31J. Malott13:21

Line 4A. Lee12:20S. Helenius11:53

Pair 1B. Dumoulin14:54C. Ceci16:10

Pair 2D. Doughty19:40M. Anderson15:25

Pair 3B. Clarke16:17J. Edmundson13:32

WPG

Line 1K. Connor17:36M. Scheifele18:00A. Iafallo16:02

Line 2J. Toews13:13G. Vilardi14:25C. Perfetti11:55

Line 3N. Niederreiter11:04V. Namestnikov11:04A. Lowry11:42

Line 4T. Pearson9:37C. Koepke9:06D. Zhilkin8:30

Pair 1D. DeMelo19:53J. Morrissey20:41

Pair 2C. Miller15:11D. Samberg16:31

Pair 3L. Schenn13:42L. Stanley16:33

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.8, WPG 2.8	LAK 1, WPG 5
Total goals	5.6	6
Shots on goal	LAK 26.4, WPG 26.3	LAK 24, WPG 20
Win chance	LAK 50%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.3	0	1.04	1	35%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.8	4	0.82	0	30%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.7	2	0.83	0	31%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.4	1	0.51	0	20%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	3	1.00	2	34%	2
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	3	0.65	1	21%	1
LAK W. Foegele	2.1	1	0.42	1	19%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.0	0	0.74	2	29%	0
LAK B. Clarke	2.0	2	0.48	0	10%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.8	2	0.68	0	13%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.6	3	0.41	2	15%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.5	1	0.54	0	12%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.5	4	0.33	1	16%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.4	2	0.58	0	23%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.4	0	0.33	0	15%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.4	1	0.38	1	14%	1
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	0	0.22	1	4%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.3	1	0.34	0	11%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	1	0.25	0	5%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.2	0	0.33	0	15%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.1	1	0.20	1	9%	1
WPG T. Pearson	1.1	0	0.23	1	10%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.0	2	0.16	1	4%	0
LAK J. Malott	1.0	4	0.16	0	9%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.0	0	0.25	0	5%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	0.9	2	0.27	1	10%	1
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	0	0.20	1	5%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	2	0.26	0	4%	0
LAK A. Lee	0.8	0	0.16	0	7%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.8	0	0.21	0	4%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.8	1	0.22	0	3%	0
WPG L. Schenn	0.8	0	0.11	0	2%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.5	0	0.10	0	2%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.4	1	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.