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Game Recap
MIN5
ANA2
MIN beat ANA 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.38 expected goals to 4.29. K. Kaprizov led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). F. Vatrano had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. F. Gustavsson stopped 33 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| ANA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 1st 7:31MINJ. Middleton0.12 xG
- 1st 9:11MINM. Foligno0.05 xG
- 1st 12:32MINK. Kaprizov0.16 xG
- 3rd 2:16ANAR. Fabbri0.09 xG
- 3rd 14:20MINM. Rossi0.12 xG
- 3rd 17:44MINK. KaprizovPP0.49 xG
- 3rd 19:47ANAM. McTavish0.07 xG
Team Stats
MINANA
31Shots on goal35
3.38Expected goals4.29
58Shot attempts86
235v5 shots on goal27
1/2Power play0/6
9Hits21
21Blocked shots18
16Penalty minutes10
19Giveaways12
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 3.38 xGANA 4.29 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:28 | 2:42 |
| M. Rossi | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | 1:34 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:31 | 1:55 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:16 | 2:33 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:47 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 15:53 | 2:29 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:24 | 1:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:31 | 0:56 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 22:40 | 2:30 |
| J. Middleton | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:30 | 0:59 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 17:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 35 | 33 | 2 | .943 | 59:46 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Fabbri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 3:35 |
| M. McTavish | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 5:52 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:43 | 6:06 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:33 | 5:59 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:27 | 5:53 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 | 4:28 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:58 | 5:41 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:20 | 5:10 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 3:57 |
| B. McGinn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:04 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:12 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 9:57 | 0:00 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17:03 | 0:08 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:30 | 7:17 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:48 | 4:43 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 15:22 | 0:55 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.3, ANA 2.7 | MIN 5, ANA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 31.3, ANA 27.0 | MIN 31, ANA 35 |
| Win chance | MIN 59% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.6 | 5 | 1.36 | 3 | 44% | 2 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.3 | 1 | 0.96 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.0 | 4 | 0.78 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.8 | 9 | 0.63 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.3 | 0 | 0.87 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.2 | 3 | 0.80 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.2 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 2.0 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.8 | 6 | 0.50 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.8 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.8 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.8 | 5 | 0.59 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.7 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.6 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.6 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.6 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.3 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA B. McGinn | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA U. Vaakanainen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 0.9 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 0.8 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.