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Game Recap
MIN0
BOS3
BOS beat MIN 3-0, with the chances close: 2.76 expected goals to 2.71. M. Poitras led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). Z. Bogosian had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Swayman stopped 36 of 36.
Team Stats
MINBOS
36Shots on goal35
2.71Expected goals2.76
69Shot attempts64
285v5 shots on goal24
0/4Power play0/3
15Hits14
15Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes8
16Giveaways12
2Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.71 xGBOS 2.76 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:33 | 7:19 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:21 | 4:32 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:10 | 5:50 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:06 | 6:01 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:02 | 1:23 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:18 | 1:27 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:30 | 2:18 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:10 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:50 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:17 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 25:05 | 4:26 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:58 | 2:52 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:22 | 0:17 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fleury | 34 | 32 | 2 | .941 | 57:51 | Loss |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:30 | 2:26 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:49 | 4:51 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 18:13 | 1:59 |
| T. Frederic | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:30 | 2:53 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 4:15 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:46 | 3:20 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:18 | 1:04 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 10:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:48 | 0:28 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:05 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:12 | 3:07 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:16 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 2 | 20:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:33 | 2:12 |
| M. Callahan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 36 | 36 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:53 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.6, BOS 2.8 | MIN 0, BOS 3 |
| Total goals | 5.4 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 27.2, BOS 28.9 | MIN 36, BOS 35 |
| Win chance | BOS 55% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.1 | 1 | 1.20 | 1 | 42% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.2 | 6 | 0.81 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.0 | 5 | 0.70 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.5 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.4 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.0 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.9 | 4 | 0.56 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.9 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.9 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.8 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.7 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.7 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.6 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS O. Wahlstrom | 1.5 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.4 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.2 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.1 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 1.1 | 3 | 0.42 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.1 | 4 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS M. Callahan | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.