MIN beat BUF 1-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.10 expected goals to 3.47. BUF outshot MIN 39 to 30. J. Quinn had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. F. Gustavsson stopped 39 of 39.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 6:55MINK. Kaprizov0.10 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.10 xGBUF 3.47 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 0:00 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:19 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:05 | 0:00 |
| T. Boyd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | +1 | 0 | 24:49 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:10 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 39 | 39 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:16 | 2:30 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:45 | 1:38 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:43 | 2:28 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:31 | 2:19 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 | 1:26 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 | 2:24 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 | 1:33 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 1:31 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:00 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 26:35 | 2:23 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:27 | 1:37 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:25 | 0:11 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 30 | 29 | 1 | .967 | 57:27 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.1, BUF 3.0 | MIN 1, BUF 0 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 28.6, BUF 29.4 | MIN 30, BUF 39 |
| Win chance | MIN 50% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.4 | 3 | 1.29 | 1 | 44% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.2 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.9 | 4 | 0.73 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 2.8 | 6 | 0.80 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.7 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.6 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.5 | 6 | 0.91 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.5 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.2 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.0 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.8 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.8 | 5 | 0.25 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.7 | 6 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.4 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.9 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN B. Jones | 0.7 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN T. Boyd | 0.6 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.6 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.