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Game Recap
MIN4
CAR0
MIN beat CAR 4-0, with the chances close: 3.05 expected goals to 2.48. M. Rossi led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). M. Zuccarello had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. F. Gustavsson stopped 21 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 13:03MINM. Zuccarello0.13 xG
- 2nd 11:30MINJ. Eriksson EkPP0.12 xG
- 3rd 9:20MINM. Boldy0.14 xG
- 3rd 17:14MINM. ZuccarelloEN0.52 xG
Team Stats
MINCAR
27Shots on goal21
3.05Expected goals2.48
47Shot attempts66
205v5 shots on goal18
1/3Power play0/4
14Hits11
17Blocked shots12
10Penalty minutes6
11Giveaways20
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 3.05 xGCAR 2.48 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 20:57 | 4:52 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:57 | 4:47 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 4 | 19:41 | 4:21 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19:37 | 4:52 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:47 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:48 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:47 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:19 | 0:00 |
| B. Gaunce | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:28 | 0:00 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 28:38 | 0:04 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 30:33 | 4:27 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:41 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 1:12 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| T. Dermott | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 21 | 21 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:50 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 20:03 | 4:39 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:34 | 4:31 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:25 | 3:24 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 3:13 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:09 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:05 | 4:36 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 4:32 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:02 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:25 | 3:09 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:29 | 3:25 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:40 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:19 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:57 | 4:12 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:03 |
| T. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:32 | 3:46 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 59:37 | Loss |
| D. Tokarski | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.7, CAR 3.4 | MIN 4, CAR 0 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 25.4, CAR 33.9 | MIN 27, CAR 21 |
| Win chance | CAR 62% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.7 | 4 | 0.74 | 3 | 27% | 1 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.6 | 5 | 0.69 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.6 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.6 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.5 | 3 | 1.02 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.3 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.0 | 5 | 0.78 | 3 | 20% | 2 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.0 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.8 | 0 | 0.60 | 4 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.8 | 4 | 0.46 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.8 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.7 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.6 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.6 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR T. Smith | 1.4 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN B. Gaunce | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.9 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN B. Jones | 0.8 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.4 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN T. Dermott | 0.4 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.