CGY beat MIN 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.66 expected goals to 2.46. CGY outshot MIN 31 to 23. M. Rossi led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Johansson had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. D. Vladar stopped 20 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| CGY | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 15:00CGYK. Rooney0.10 xG
- 1st 16:03MINM. Johansson0.14 xG
- 2nd 19:29CGYM. PospisilPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 3:53CGYY. SharangovichPP0.17 xG
- 3rd 16:01MINB. FaberPP0.04 xG
- 3rd 19:26MINM. Rossi0.22 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.46 xGCGY 2.66 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 25:33 | 2:52 |
| M. Rossi | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:57 | 2:51 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 25:57 | 2:52 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:30 | 1:44 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:29 | 2:50 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 1:31 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:19 | 1:38 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:07 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| T. Boyd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:23 | 1:27 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:58 | 0:00 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:13 | 0:05 |
| B. Faber | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:04 | 2:37 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:57 | 0:11 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:44 | 1:55 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:04 | 0:10 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 63:22 | OT loss |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:52 | 1:55 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:30 | 2:02 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:42 | 1:42 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | 1:46 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:01 | 0:00 |
| K. Rooney | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 8:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:09 | 1:34 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:35 | 1:49 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 17:44 | 1:52 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:00 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 | 1:38 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:59 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 27:14 | 1:59 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 23:18 | 1:36 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:28 | 0:07 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.1, CGY 3.0 | MIN 3, CGY 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 28.6, CGY 31.0 | MIN 23, CGY 31 |
| Win chance | MIN 51% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.1 | 1 | 0.79 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.9 | 3 | 0.83 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.6 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.6 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.5 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.3 | 7 | 0.61 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.2 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.1 | 4 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.8 | 0 | 0.52 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.7 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.7 | 3 | 0.37 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.6 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.5 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.5 | 8 | 0.43 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.3 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 0.9 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.9 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN T. Boyd | 0.7 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.6 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.