CGY beat MIN 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.18 expected goals to 1.57. CGY outshot MIN 32 to 18. M. Backlund had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. D. Wolf stopped 16 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| CGY | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 16:25CGYM. Backlund0.49 xG
- 2nd 5:31CGYY. Sharangovich0.08 xG
- 2nd 7:23CGYN. KadriPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 7:20CGYR. Lomberg0.19 xG
- 3rd 15:39MINY. Trenin0.19 xG
- 3rd 18:30MING. Nyquist0.15 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 1.57 xGCGY 4.18 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:46 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:18 | 1:14 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:00 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:14 | 3:02 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:54 | 3:09 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:10 | 2:57 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:49 | 2:56 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 | 2:29 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:47 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:41 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 27:28 | 0:34 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 24:10 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 29 | 25 | 4 | .862 | 47:12 | Loss |
| M. Fleury | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1.000 | 9:36 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Backlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:10 | 0:43 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:11 | 1:24 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:52 | 0:43 |
| N. Kadri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:20 | 1:24 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:52 | 0:43 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:16 | 1:24 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:08 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:45 | 0:08 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:18 | 1:24 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:00 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:36 | 0:08 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:43 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 25:19 | 1:15 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 22:39 | 0:08 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 22:17 | 1:00 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.9, CGY 3.1 | MIN 2, CGY 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 27.1, CGY 32.1 | MIN 18, CGY 32 |
| Win chance | CGY 54% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.6 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.5 | 1 | 1.18 | 0 | 42% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.3 | 0 | 0.90 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.1 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.7 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.5 | 4 | 0.59 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.3 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.2 | 5 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.1 | 1 | 0.85 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.1 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.9 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.8 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.7 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.6 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.6 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.5 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.5 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.2 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.