Game Recap: MIN 1, CGY 2, October 22, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN1

FinalThu, Oct 22, 2026Every game that night

CGY2

CGY beat MIN 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.45 expected goals to 3.15. MIN outshot CGY 37 to 22. M. Boldy had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.8. D. Cooley stopped 36 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	0	0	1	1
CGY	2	0	0	2

1st 10:49CGYA. SunievPP0.11 xG
1st 14:06CGYJ. FarabeePP0.52 xG
3rd 4:39MINM. McCarron0.06 xG

Team Stats

MINCGY

37Shots on goal22

3.15Expected goals2.45

69Shot attempts39

215v5 shots on goal13

0/4Power play2/4

26Hits25

8Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways20

5Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.15 xGCGY 2.45 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN38 on goal, 1 scored

CGY22 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. McCarron	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	11:28	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	9:52	0:00
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	7	1	1	0	0	25:05	6:05
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	24:54	6:14
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	23:14	5:19
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:27	5:20
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	14:23	1:55
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:57	2:41
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:15	2:40
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	7	1	0	2	10:49	0:00
R. Lorenz	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:40	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	6:44	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	19:06	0:11
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	2	31:04	6:16
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	19:19	1:53
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	2	3	3	0	0	16:09	1:26
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	14:18	0:00
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	22	20	2	.909	57:57	Loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Farabee	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	18:51	4:33
M. Coronato	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	2	16:23	3:30
M. Frost	C	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	13:19	4:05
A. Suniev	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	11:40	1:29
A. Klapka	RW	0	1	1	1	4	0	-1	0	11:09	1:30
J. Castagna	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	18:28	0:00
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:58	1:41
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	15:46	0:14
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	15:19	1:38
M. Gridin	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:57	4:21
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	12:06	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	10:45	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	23:48	0:17
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	21:36	1:42
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	20:38	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	19:53	0:55
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:37	4:20
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	13:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Cooley	37	36	1	.973	60:00	Win
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov16:37M. Boldy16:12J. Ek15:05

Line 2B. Coleman10:40B. Brink11:16R. Hartman10:35

Line 3Y. Trenin9:29D. Yurov9:51R. Lorenz8:40

Line 4M. McCarron8:26N. Sturm7:48T. Pitlick6:44

Pair 1Q. Hughes22:39J. Brodin14:56

Pair 2Z. Bogosian12:14O. Maatta12:15

Pair 3D. Hunt14:38J. Spurgeon11:25

CGY

Line 1B. Othmann12:06J. Castagna13:38A. Klapka9:39

Line 2J. Farabee9:42M. Coronato12:53B. Jones9:43

Line 3R. Strome11:29M. Gridin10:36M. Pospisil11:37

Line 4Y. Sharangovich10:59A. Suniev10:11M. Frost9:00

Pair 1K. Bahl17:47S. Nemec17:31

Pair 2J. Middleton14:37Z. Whitecloud14:59

Pair 3Y. Kuznetsov11:46Z. Parekh11:17

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 16 overs hit (69%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	+110	-130	4	Over
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	-120	+105	7	Over
MIN J. Ek	2.5	-160	+130	3	Over
CGY J. Farabee	2.5	+140	-165	1	Under
CGY M. Coronato	2.5	+122	-140	3	Over
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	-105	-115	3	Over
MIN B. Coleman	1.5	-170	+140	2	Over
MIN D. Yurov	1.5	+105	-145	2	Over
CGY M. Frost	1.5	-150	+115	4	Over
CGY M. Gridin	1.5	-135	+105	2	Over
CGY M. Pospisil	1.5	+125	-170	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	1.5	-130	+105	1	Under
CGY R. Strome	1.5	+115	-145	0	Under
CGY S. Nemec	1.5	+105	-128	2	Over
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.5	-130	+115	1	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	1.5	+104	-130	2	Over

3 of 33 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
CGY A. Klapka	0.5	+750	-900	0	Under
CGY A. Suniev	0.5	+450	-900	1	Over
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+500	-600	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+280	-450	0	Under
CGY B. Jones	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
MIN D. Hunt	0.5	+2500	-4000	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+430	-600	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	+300	-370	1	Over
CGY J. Middleton	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
CGY K. Bahl	0.5	+1600	-4000	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	-105	-130	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+135	-150	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	+260	-400	0	Under
CGY M. Frost	0.5	+280	-390	0	Under
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	+400	-500	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	0.5	+750	-1200	1	Over
CGY M. Pospisil	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
MIN N. Sturm	0.5	+900	-1200	0	Under
MIN O. Maatta	0.5	+1400	-3500	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+360	-400	0	Under
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+800	-2000	0	Under
MIN T. Pitlick	0.5	+1100	–	0	Under
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	0.5	+380	-550	0	Under
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+750	-900	0	Under
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.5	+2500	-2800	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under

3 of 18 overs hit (17%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+265	-370	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+290	-350	0	Under
CGY B. Jones	0.5	+290	-425	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+380	-500	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+250	-350	1	Over
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+135	-175	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	+225	-250	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	-104	-120	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+115	-140	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	+165	-225	1	Over
CGY M. Frost	0.5	+220	-250	1	Over
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	+200	-265	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-175	+160	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+290	-300	0	Under
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+265	-325	0	Under
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+260	-350	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+270	-325	0	Under

4 of 18 overs hit (22%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	1.5	+150	-175	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	1.5	+168	-200	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+160	-180	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+126	-135	0	Under
CGY B. Jones	0.5	+155	-210	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+190	-220	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+175	-240	1	Over
MIN J. Ek	0.5	-150	+125	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	+110	-120	1	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	-225	+200	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	-115	-109	1	Over
CGY M. Frost	0.5	+110	-120	1	Over
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	+115	-145	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+140	-165	0	Under
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+160	-190	0	Under
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+190	-235	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	0.5	+145	-180	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+195	-250	0	Under

5 of 19 overs hit (26%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
CGY A. Klapka	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
CGY A. Suniev	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+280	-450	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	+350	-550	1	Over
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+150	-210	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+190	-225	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	+220	-375	1	Over
CGY M. Frost	0.5	+325	-400	1	Over
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	+340	-425	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+300	-600	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
CGY D. Cooley	26.5	-120	-110	36	Over
MIN J. Wallstedt	23.5	-112	-110	20	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
MIN J. Brodin	1.5	-180	+130	0	Under
CGY J. Middleton	1.5	-115	-120	3	Over
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.5	-180	+130	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBlake Coleman MIN Faces CGY, his team until Apr 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.3, CGY 2.8	MIN 1, CGY 2
Total goals	6.1	3
Shots on goal	MIN 30.4, CGY 29.2	MIN 37, CGY 22
Win chance	MIN 59%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.8	7	1.10	0	37%	0
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.2	4	1.24	0	43%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.2	3	0.81	0	29%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.4	3	1.07	0	14%	0
MIN B. Coleman	2.3	2	0.51	0	22%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	3	0.57	1	21%	0
MIN R. Hartman	1.9	1	0.47	0	19%	0
CGY M. Gridin	1.8	2	0.52	0	16%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.8	4	0.52	1	19%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.8	1	0.50	1	20%	1
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.8	1	0.45	0	21%	0
CGY A. Suniev	1.7	3	0.44	1	17%	1
CGY S. Nemec	1.7	2	0.38	0	11%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.6	2	0.33	0	9%	0
CGY R. Strome	1.4	0	0.43	0	14%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.4	1	0.27	1	11%	1
CGY M. Pospisil	1.4	0	0.27	0	9%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.3	1	0.32	1	6%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.3	2	0.43	0	15%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	4	0.38	0	8%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.3	2	0.40	0	17%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	1	0.28	0	11%	0
CGY J. Castagna	1.2	0	0.24	0	10%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.2	1	0.20	0	6%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.1	1	0.26	1	11%	0
CGY J. Middleton	1.0	1	0.25	0	6%	0
CGY B. Jones	1.0	0	0.11	0	6%	0
MIN O. Maatta	1.0	0	0.34	0	5%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.0	1	0.24	0	6%	0
CGY B. Othmann	0.9	0	0.14	0	7%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.9	0	0.24	0	6%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	1	0.17	0	4%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	0	0.20	1	8%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.7	3	0.12	0	5%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.7	2	0.17	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.