Game Recap: MIN 1, CHI 2 (OT), November 10, 2024

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Game Recap

MIN1

Final/OTSun, Nov 10, 2024Every game that night

CHI2

CHI beat MIN 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.04 expected goals to 2.22. MIN outshot CHI 33 to 22. T. Teravainen had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. P. Mrazek stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MIN	0	0	1	0	1
CHI	1	0	0	1	2

1st 16:44CHIJ. Dickinson0.21 xG
3rd 15:29MINM. Boldy0.19 xG
OT 1:50CHIP. Kurashev0.06 xG

Team Stats

MINCHI

33Shots on goal22

2.22Expected goals2.04

61Shot attempts40

235v5 shots on goal17

0/3Power play0/3

25Hits16

9Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways8

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.22 xGCHI 2.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN33 on goal, 1 scored

CHI21 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	25:02	3:50
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	19:20	3:41
M. Boldy	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	2	18:16	3:51
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	17:56	3:42
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	15:51	2:13
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	2	15:10	2:08
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	14:21	2:14
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:51	2:19
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:43	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	11:31	0:00
J. Lauko	C	0	0	0	1	7	2	0	0	10:52	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	10:15	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	27:43	3:55
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	22:46	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	18:43	2:07
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	18:06	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:38	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	11:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	22	20	2	.909	61:38	OT loss
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Dickinson	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	2	19:00	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:00	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	5	1	2	0	0	19:17	2:31
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	16:56	0:00
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:40	3:43
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	16:35	2:24
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:53	3:40
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	15:23	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:23	3:38
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	13:07	3:12
C. Smith	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:19	2:17
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:45	2:18
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	0	0	24:33	3:49
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	23:43	2:13
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	22:41	0:15
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	17:34	0:00
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	14:47	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	33	32	1	.970	61:50	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNick Foligno MIN Faces CHI, his team until Mar 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.5, CHI 2.6	MIN 1, CHI 2
Total goals	6.1	3
Shots on goal	MIN 31.0, CHI 27.1	MIN 33, CHI 22
Win chance	MIN 63%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	5	1.34	1	46%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.2	4	0.93	1	33%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.0	2	0.79	0	30%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.8	2	0.82	0	24%	0
CHI S. Jones	2.4	1	0.53	1	10%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.2	1	0.86	1	23%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.2	2	0.60	0	25%	0
CHI T. Hall	2.2	1	0.60	0	22%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.1	2	0.48	0	20%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.9	0	0.56	0	23%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.9	5	0.53	0	21%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.8	0	0.47	0	19%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.7	5	0.60	0	22%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.7	4	0.43	0	17%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.6	1	0.36	0	6%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.6	0	0.33	0	15%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.5	0	0.54	0	7%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.5	2	0.41	0	8%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.5	0	0.42	0	17%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.3	1	0.46	1	15%	1
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	3	0.38	1	16%	1
CHI L. Reichel	1.3	2	0.35	0	12%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	1	0.22	0	14%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.2	0	0.25	0	6%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.1	1	0.32	0	6%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.1	1	0.21	0	4%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	1	0.30	0	4%	0
CHI J. Anderson	1.0	1	0.29	0	12%	0
MIN J. Lauko	0.9	1	0.25	0	10%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.9	2	0.26	0	9%	0
MIN M. Foligno	0.9	0	0.35	0	16%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.8	0	0.21	0	2%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.6	2	0.17	0	3%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.6	0	0.23	0	2%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.5	1	0.22	0	3%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	1	0.23	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.