Game Recap: MIN 4, CHI 2, January 26, 2025

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Game Recap

MIN4

FinalSun, Jan 26, 2025Every game that night

CHI2

MIN beat CHI 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.81 expected goals to 1.55. MIN outshot CHI 28 to 20. M. Boldy led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). S. Jones had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. F. Gustavsson stopped 18 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	2	1	1	4
CHI	0	0	2	2

1st 5:43MINJ. Spurgeon0.13 xG
1st 7:17MINF. Gaudreau0.02 xG
2nd 10:45MINJ. Eriksson EkPP0.12 xG
3rd 0:56CHIS. JonesPP0.10 xG
3rd 4:16CHIF. Nazar0.15 xG
3rd 18:18MINM. FolignoEN0.39 xG

Team Stats

MINCHI

28Shots on goal20

2.81Expected goals1.55

49Shot attempts55

205v5 shots on goal10

1/3Power play1/3

10Hits26

16Blocked shots12

10Penalty minutes10

7Giveaways19

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.81 xGCHI 1.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN28 on goal, 4 scored

CHI20 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	0	3	3	4	0	1	+1	0	14:36	4:27
M. Foligno	LW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	2	13:23	0:00
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	23:02	4:01
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	22:17	4:19
F. Gaudreau	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	15:25	1:15
M. Rossi	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	13:47	0:59
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	22:08	4:20
J. Lauko	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	13:01	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	11:41	1:26
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	10:24	1:23
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:15	0:00
D. Shore	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:02	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	18:54	4:03
Z. Bogosian	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	16:36	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	28:13	1:32
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	2	5	+1	4	25:26	0:15
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	15:08	0:00
T. Dermott	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	10:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	20	18	2	.900	60:00	Win
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-2	0	22:12	3:18
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2	0	18:07	2:51
F. Nazar	C	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	17:05	1:15
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:36	2:54
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	15:12	1:19
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	14:50	1:17
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:48	1:13
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	2	13:55	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	4	12:47	1:35
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:47	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:34	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:24	0:52
S. Jones	D	1	0	1	6	2	3	-1	0	24:06	2:51
E. Del Mastro	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	2	18:22	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	23:08	0:00
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	20:37	1:20
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	14:49	0:00
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	12:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	27	24	3	.889	58:22	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNick Foligno MIN Faces CHI, his team until Mar 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.1, CHI 2.7	MIN 4, CHI 2
Total goals	5.7	6
Shots on goal	MIN 29.7, CHI 27.0	MIN 28, CHI 20
Win chance	MIN 56%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.6	2	1.26	1	45%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.4	4	0.93	3	33%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.1	4	0.77	1	29%	1
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.6	2	1.00	0	26%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	2	0.93	1	27%	0
CHI S. Jones	2.2	6	0.53	1	10%	1
MIN M. Rossi	2.1	0	0.73	1	26%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.1	0	0.69	1	28%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.0	3	0.49	0	21%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.0	2	0.51	0	20%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	0	0.43	0	21%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.6	1	0.68	0	22%	0
MIN L. Ohgren	1.5	1	0.29	0	12%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.5	2	0.38	1	16%	1
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.5	3	0.40	1	8%	1
CHI N. Foligno	1.5	0	0.46	0	18%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.4	0	0.31	0	4%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.4	1	0.49	0	8%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.4	0	0.36	0	8%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.4	1	0.43	1	16%	1
CHI C. Dach	1.3	1	0.39	0	13%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	2	0.39	0	18%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.3	0	0.23	0	7%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.2	0	0.29	0	6%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.2	0	0.23	1	5%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	1	0.37	2	16%	1
CHI L. Reichel	1.1	0	0.31	0	11%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.1	2	0.36	0	13%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.8	2	0.24	0	8%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.8	2	0.19	0	4%	0
MIN J. Lauko	0.7	1	0.18	0	8%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.7	1	0.15	0	5%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.6	0	0.14	0	7%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.5	0	0.23	0	4%	0
MIN T. Dermott	0.5	1	0.09	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.