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Game Recap
MIN4
CHI3
MIN beat CHI 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.35 expected goals to 3.74. CHI outshot MIN 37 to 24. M. Boldy led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). W. Kaiser had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. F. Gustavsson stopped 34 of 37.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| CHI | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
- 2nd 5:41CHIJ. Dickinson0.04 xG
- 2nd 12:08CHIC. Bedard0.21 xG
- 2nd 19:46MINB. Faber0.01 xG
- 3rd 2:17MINN. Sturm0.17 xG
- 3rd 5:31CHIA. Levshunov0.15 xG
- 3rd 10:35MINM. Boldy0.83 xG
- OT 1:38MINK. KaprizovPP0.06 xG
Team Stats
MINCHI
24Shots on goal37
3.35Expected goals3.74
53Shot attempts64
205v5 shots on goal29
1/5Power play0/4
26Hits11
5Blocked shots11
18Penalty minutes20
16Giveaways18
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 3.35 xGCHI 3.74 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 22:34 | 5:16 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:41 | 5:06 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:32 | 5:01 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 | 1:52 |
| N. Sturm | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:49 | 5:04 |
| D. Yurov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:59 | 1:43 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 7 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:07 | 1:02 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:28 | 0:56 |
| T. Pitlick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 5:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:04 | 1:43 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:50 | 0:07 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 7 | 16:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:25 | 1:37 |
| Z. Buium | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:16 | 4:31 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:12 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 37 | 34 | 3 | .919 | 61:31 | Win |
| J. Wallstedt | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:49 | 5:34 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:35 | 0:20 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:42 | 5:11 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 7:08 | 0:43 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20:51 | 0:13 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:00 | 5:29 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:22 | 1:04 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:51 | 5:02 |
| R. Greene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:29 |
| O. Moore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:53 | 0:00 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:16 | 5:32 |
| S. Rinzel | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:53 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:50 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:40 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 24 | 20 | 4 | .833 | 61:38 | OT loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
MIN
Line 1J. Ek14:26M. Boldy14:27K. Kaprizov17:53
Line 2M. Zuccarello14:40D. Yurov12:43M. Johansson13:59
Line 3B. Jones8:30L. Ohgren8:05T. Pitlick5:41
Line 4N. Sturm10:48Y. Trenin11:01M. Foligno4:46
Pair 2J. Spurgeon15:42J. Middleton14:38
Pair 3Z. Bogosian13:17Z. Buium12:28
CHI
Line 1R. Donato15:56I. Mikheyev17:28J. Dickinson15:29
Line 2T. Bertuzzi13:27C. Bedard16:29R. Greene15:02
Line 3F. Nazar10:53O. Moore11:42T. Teravainen9:10
Line 4C. Dach6:25L. Slaggert4:53
Pair 1A. Vlasic17:41L. Crevier12:37
Pair 2W. Kaiser15:22A. Levshunov12:44
Pair 3M. Grzelcyk12:57S. Rinzel11:44
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 3.1, CHI 2.8 | MIN 4, CHI 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 28.8, CHI 26.7 | MIN 24, CHI 37 |
| Win chance | MIN 55% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.5 | 2 | 1.24 | 1 | 44% | 1 |
| MIN J. Ek | 3.2 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.1 | 6 | 0.94 | 3 | 33% | 1 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.7 | 3 | 0.88 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.1 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 2.1 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 2.1 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.0 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.8 | 4 | 0.44 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.8 | 4 | 0.43 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.5 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI S. Rinzel | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI R. Greene | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN D. Yurov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI O. Moore | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.2 | 3 | 0.41 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Buium | 1.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI C. Dach | 1.1 | 3 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.1 | 4 | 0.29 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.1 | 4 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN B. Jones | 0.9 | 0 | 0.06 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN N. Sturm | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| MIN T. Pitlick | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.