Game Recap: MIN 4, CHI 3 (OT), March 17, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN4

Final/OTTue, Mar 17, 2026Every game that night

CHI3

MIN beat CHI 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.31 expected goals to 3.38. MIN outshot CHI 37 to 26. M. Johansson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Faber had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. F. Gustavsson stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MIN	3	0	0	1	4
CHI	1	1	1	0	3

1st 6:17MINR. Hartman0.21 xG
1st 7:58MINM. Johansson0.44 xG
1st 10:47CHIL. Crevier0.07 xG
1st 18:30MINV. TarasenkoPP0.13 xG
2nd 14:35CHIR. Greene0.62 xG
3rd 18:20CHIF. Nazar0.25 xG
OT 3:09MINM. Zuccarello0.13 xG

Team Stats

MINCHI

37Shots on goal26

3.31Expected goals3.38

63Shot attempts57

285v5 shots on goal22

1/1Power play0/2

23Hits9

14Blocked shots15

4Penalty minutes2

13Giveaways15

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.31 xGCHI 3.38 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN37 on goal, 4 scored

CHI26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Johansson	LW	1	2	3	1	0	0	+2	0	15:56	0:25
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	1	1	6	1	1	-1	0	21:54	1:27
R. Hartman	RW	1	0	1	4	1	3	-2	0	18:39	0:54
M. Zuccarello	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	17:12	1:25
V. Tarasenko	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	15:36	0:55
M. McCarron	C	0	1	1	0	5	0	+1	0	14:19	0:00
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	20:34	1:24
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	14:58	0:22
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	2	12:31	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:20	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:39	0:00
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	8:10	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	3	3	5	3	1	0	0	21:48	0:24
J. Brodin	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	20:19	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	27:27	1:28
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	21:01	0:21
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:50	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	24	21	3	.875	59:32	Win
J. Wallstedt	2	2	0	1.000	3:27

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	0	2	2	4	1	1	+2	0	23:05	3:05
F. Nazar	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	0	20:48	3:06
R. Greene	C	1	0	1	4	1	2	0	0	21:25	0:51
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:50	3:03
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	18:09	3:03
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	16:52	0:56
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	16:12	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:50	0:57
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	2	11:05	0:00
N. Lardis	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	10:24	0:55
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:52	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	7:02	0:00
L. Crevier	D	1	1	2	4	2	0	+1	0	18:40	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	26:29	3:19
W. Kaiser	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+2	0	22:59	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	22:13	0:04
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	16:52	0:41
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	11:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	37	33	4	.892	63:09	OT loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov18:48M. Boldy16:31D. Yurov14:32

Line 2M. Zuccarello14:51R. Hartman16:58V. Tarasenko13:47

Line 3M. Johansson13:56M. McCarron12:46N. Foligno11:52

Line 4N. Sturm9:50Y. Trenin9:57R. Fabbri8:10

Pair 1Q. Hughes23:14B. Faber19:14

Pair 2J. Spurgeon18:06J. Brodin17:45

Pair 3Z. Bogosian15:50J. Middleton13:58

CHI

Line 1C. Bedard19:27R. Greene16:59A. Burakovsky15:56

Line 2T. Teravainen14:04F. Nazar17:12T. Bertuzzi15:08

Line 3R. Donato12:43I. Mikheyev15:16A. Mangiapane10:55

Line 4L. Slaggert8:03N. Lardis9:29S. Lafferty7:02

Pair 1A. Vlasic20:59A. Levshunov20:06

Pair 2S. Rinzel16:11W. Kaiser21:14

Pair 3L. Crevier17:30E. Mastro11:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNick Foligno MIN Faces CHI, his team until Mar 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.3, CHI 2.7	MIN 4, CHI 3
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	MIN 29.0, CHI 26.0	MIN 37, CHI 26
Win chance	MIN 60%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	6	1.25	1	45%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.2	3	1.02	0	35%	0
CHI C. Bedard	3.0	4	0.94	2	30%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	1	1.14	0	16%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.3	2	0.87	1	24%	1
CHI F. Nazar	2.2	1	0.65	2	22%	1
MIN R. Hartman	2.2	4	0.52	1	22%	1
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.1	1	0.69	0	28%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	2.0	2	0.40	0	8%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.9	2	0.55	1	22%	1
MIN B. Faber	1.8	5	0.48	3	13%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.7	3	0.45	0	21%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.5	2	0.48	0	21%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.5	4	0.20	2	6%	1
CHI R. Greene	1.5	4	0.37	1	14%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	1.4	0	0.62	0	21%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.3	1	0.48	0	17%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.3	2	0.36	1	4%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.3	1	0.46	3	14%	1
MIN M. McCarron	1.2	0	0.21	1	10%	0
CHI N. Lardis	1.2	0	0.27	0	13%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	1	0.26	0	12%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	1	0.26	0	3%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.1	1	0.31	0	9%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.1	3	0.39	0	15%	0
MIN R. Fabbri	1.1	3	0.29	0	14%	0
CHI A. Mangiapane	1.1	0	0.30	0	15%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	0	0.19	1	6%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.1	1	0.29	1	7%	0
MIN N. Foligno	0.9	2	0.30	0	11%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.9	0	0.16	0	7%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.8	1	0.23	0	6%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	1	0.18	0	5%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.8	1	0.17	0	5%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.7	0	0.18	0	8%	0
CHI S. Lafferty	0.6	0	0.14	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.