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Game Recap
MIN3
COL1
MIN beat COL 3-1, with the chances close: 2.92 expected goals to 2.43. J. Middleton led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Fleury stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| COL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 12:18MINJ. Middleton0.02 xG
- 2nd 18:52COLN. MacKinnon0.23 xG
- 3rd 2:08MINY. Trenin0.12 xG
- 3rd 3:43MINB. Faber0.18 xG
Team Stats
MINCOL
26Shots on goal27
2.92Expected goals2.43
48Shot attempts59
155v5 shots on goal19
0/4Power play0/3
7Hits16
17Blocked shots9
6Penalty minutes8
7Giveaways13
2Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
MIN 2.92 xGCOL 2.43 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 9:04 | 2:17 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 14:44 | 2:31 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:39 | 2:02 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:35 | 5:28 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 25:43 | 5:58 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:13 | 5:51 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 5:42 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:52 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 7:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:43 | 0:01 |
| B. Faber | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 28:17 | 5:19 |
| D.Jiricek | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:33 | 2:09 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:39 | 2:42 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fleury | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Gustavsson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:57 | 4:47 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 26:55 | 4:50 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:07 | 4:16 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:05 | 2:51 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:21 | 1:48 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:42 | 2:30 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:50 | 1:44 |
| J. Innala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 4:12 | 0:02 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 3:09 | 0:00 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:54 | 1:12 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 30:23 | 4:28 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29:49 | 1:32 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:41 | 0:00 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 8:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 56:23 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN 2.8, COL 3.4 | MIN 3, COL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | MIN 26.7, COL 32.3 | MIN 26, COL 27 |
| Win chance | COL 60% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.9 | 6 | 1.51 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.3 | 3 | 0.91 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.0 | 4 | 1.09 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 2.8 | 2 | 1.24 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.8 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.4 | 2 | 0.97 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.2 | 3 | 0.79 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 2.2 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 2.1 | 3 | 0.65 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.0 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.9 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.7 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.3 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.2 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 2 | 7% | 1 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL K. Middleton | 1.2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN L. Ohgren | 1.2 | 3 | 0.19 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| COL C. Haan | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL J. Parssinen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN D.Jiricek | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL J. Innala | 0.4 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.