Game Recap: MIN 2, COL 5, February 28, 2025

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Game Recap

MIN2

FinalFri, Feb 28, 2025Every game that night

COL5

COL beat MIN 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.56 expected goals to 2.40. COL outshot MIN 30 to 20. R. Colton led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Johansson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. M. Blackwood stopped 18 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	2	0	0	2
COL	1	3	1	5

1st 4:14MINM. Zuccarello0.19 xG
1st 13:58COLV. NichushkinPP0.21 xG
1st 17:42MINV. HinostrozaPP0.10 xG
2nd 8:57COLJ. Drouin0.13 xG
2nd 9:49COLJ. Drury0.09 xG
2nd 14:39COLR. Colton0.33 xG
3rd 19:52COLR. ColtonEN0.72 xG

Team Stats

MINCOL

20Shots on goal30

2.40Expected goals3.56

54Shot attempts71

165v5 shots on goal21

1/3Power play2/3

14Hits15

23Blocked shots19

6Penalty minutes6

29Giveaways24

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.40 xGCOL 3.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN20 on goal, 2 scored

COL28 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rossi	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	20:25	3:41
M. Zuccarello	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:38	3:38
V. Hinostroza	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	18:12	2:47
M. Johansson	LW	0	1	1	5	1	0	+1	0	18:07	1:22
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	22:55	3:44
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	19:39	2:18
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:32	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	-2	0	11:12	0:03
B. Gaunce	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	10:56	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:50	1:21
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	9:56	0:00
J. Lauko	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	8:51	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	-2	2	27:20	3:29
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	24:45	1:23
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	22:38	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-2	2	15:47	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:18	0:14
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:04	1:25

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	29	25	4	.862	59:05	Loss
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Colton	C	2	1	3	5	2	1	+2	0	10:11	0:24
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	21:17	4:26
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	18:50	2:26
M. Necas	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	18:43	4:12
J. Drouin	LW	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	16:54	4:15
J. Drury	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	13:51	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+2	0	11:59	0:00
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	19:01	2:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	13:29	0:24
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	13:10	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:25	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:41	0:00
O. Kylington	D	0	2	2	0	0	3	+1	0	12:52	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	29:17	4:26
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	28:41	1:13
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	20:40	0:24
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	13:43	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	20	18	2	.900	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamYakov Trenin MIN Faces COL, his team until May 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.5, COL 3.5	MIN 2, COL 5
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	MIN 24.4, COL 32.2	MIN 20, COL 30
Win chance	COL 66%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.3	2	1.48	1	39%	0
COL C. Makar	3.4	3	1.13	1	24%	0
COL M. Necas	3.2	3	1.07	1	31%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.1	1	0.77	0	27%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.7	5	0.85	1	34%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.5	2	0.84	0	34%	0
COL D. Toews	2.3	1	0.63	1	12%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.2	1	0.75	1	21%	1
MIN M. Rossi	1.7	0	0.58	1	22%	0
COL J. Drury	1.7	3	0.33	1	12%	1
COL M. Wood	1.7	1	0.25	0	12%	0
COL R. Colton	1.7	5	0.41	3	19%	2
COL S. Malinski	1.6	0	0.22	0	6%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.6	1	0.39	0	17%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.5	1	0.31	1	13%	1
COL J. Drouin	1.5	1	0.71	1	17%	1
MIN J. Brodin	1.5	1	0.34	0	7%	0
COL S. Girard	1.5	0	0.37	0	6%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	5	0.35	1	13%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.3	2	0.40	1	8%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.3	1	0.58	0	17%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	0	0.34	0	8%	0
MIN L. Ohgren	1.3	0	0.23	0	10%	0
COL O. Kylington	1.2	0	0.26	2	7%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.2	1	0.28	0	7%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	2	0.22	0	12%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.1	0	0.28	0	12%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	1	0.33	0	15%	0
COL C. Haan	1.1	1	0.17	0	3%	0
MIN B. Gaunce	1.1	0	0.16	0	9%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	1	0.22	0	9%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	1	0.23	1	11%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
MIN J. Lauko	0.8	2	0.19	0	8%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.7	1	0.13	0	3%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.6	1	0.18	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.