Game Recap: MIN 5, COL 2, February 26, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

MIN5

FinalThu, Feb 26, 2026Every game that night

COL2

MIN beat COL 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.68 expected goals to 3.31. COL outshot MIN 47 to 36. M. Boldy led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). M. Boldy had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. F. Gustavsson stopped 44 of 45.

Team Stats

MINCOL

36Shots on goal47

5.68Expected goals3.31

62Shot attempts81

205v5 shots on goal37

2/6Power play0/3

24Hits24

13Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes12

16Giveaways19

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 5.68 xGCOL 3.31 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN34 on goal, 4 scored

COL46 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	2	2	4	10	0	0	+2	0	22:42	6:50
J. Eriksson Ek	C	2	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	21:12	6:27
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	2	2	3	2	0	+2	0	21:04	6:54
M. Zuccarello	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	18:32	6:42
R. Hartman	RW	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	15:02	1:25
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:53	1:33
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	13:51	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	7	0	-1	0	13:45	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:15	1:52
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	9:55	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	9:04	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	6:20	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	26:12	7:08
B. Faber	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	+3	0	25:44	1:15
J. Middleton	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	18:58	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	18:17	1:39
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	-2	0	15:14	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	2	9:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	45	44	1	.978	58:49	Win
J. Wallstedt	2	1	1	.500	1:04

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	2	0	2	7	3	0	0	0	24:21	4:51
N. MacKinnon	C	0	2	2	8	0	0	0	0	23:21	4:46
G. Landeskog	LW	0	1	1	2	4	0	0	4	21:44	4:51
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	21:20	4:47
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	2	15:31	1:04
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	15:06	2:33
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	4	2	-1	0	13:24	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:08	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	10:50	0:15
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:05	1:12
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6:52	1:14
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5:12	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	2	2	2	+1	2	15:55	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	26:45	4:51
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	25:23	1:09
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:33	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	4	0	5	0	2	14:39	0:17
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	14:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	34	31	3	.912	56:59	Loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Johansson13:17M. Boldy12:52J. Ek11:22

Line 2D. Yurov12:01Y. Trenin12:24V. Tarasenko11:03

Line 3M. Zuccarello11:43K. Kaprizov13:39R. Hartman13:30

Line 4M. Foligno7:21N. Sturm7:21V. Hinostroza6:20

Pair 1Q. Hughes18:57B. Faber19:49

Pair 2J. Middleton14:57J. Spurgeon14:17

Pair 3Z. Bogosian12:06D. Hunt8:46

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon17:54M. Necas18:52G. Landeskog15:46

Line 2B. Nelson11:39V. Nichushkin10:43A. Lehkonen10:40

Line 3R. Colton9:51J. Drury11:32V. Olofsson6:22

Line 4P. Kelly10:41G. Brindley4:55J. Kiviranta4:08

Pair 1D. Toews18:58C. Makar17:56

Pair 2B. Kulak13:56S. Malinski13:38

Pair 3B. Burns11:30J. Manson12:44

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamYakov Trenin MIN Faces COL, his team until May 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.1, COL 3.6	MIN 5, COL 2
Total goals	6.7	7
Shots on goal	MIN 27.2, COL 34.5	MIN 36, COL 47
Win chance	COL 59%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.5	8	1.52	2	42%	0
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	3	1.09	2	42%	0
COL C. Makar	3.0	2	1.00	0	23%	0
MIN M. Boldy	2.9	10	0.85	4	32%	2
COL B. Nelson	2.7	4	0.92	0	36%	0
COL M. Necas	2.7	7	1.02	2	30%	2
MIN J. Ek	2.5	5	0.60	2	23%	2
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	4	0.94	1	11%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.4	3	0.77	0	31%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.3	1	0.51	1	23%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.2	2	0.69	1	26%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.2	2	0.66	0	27%	0
COL R. Colton	2.2	3	0.42	0	17%	0
COL B. Burns	2.1	4	0.39	0	9%	0
COL S. Malinski	2.1	3	0.34	0	6%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.0	2	0.72	1	21%	1
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.8	1	0.48	0	21%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.8	0	0.43	0	20%	0
COL J. Manson	1.8	2	0.37	1	8%	0
COL D. Toews	1.8	3	0.46	0	9%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.7	4	0.41	1	9%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.5	0	0.34	0	14%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	0	0.43	0	15%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	2	0.35	0	13%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.3	1	0.23	0	5%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	1	0.25	0	12%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.2	0	0.39	0	15%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.1	0	0.30	0	7%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	0	0.27	0	14%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.1	1	0.24	0	10%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	0	0.22	0	10%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.9	1	0.24	1	5%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	0.9	3	0.18	0	8%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	0	0.16	0	3%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	1	0.17	0	8%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.5	0	0.13	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.