Game Recap: MIN 2, COL 3 (SO), March 8, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN2

Final/SOSun, Mar 8, 2026Every game that night

COL3

COL beat MIN 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.70 expected goals to 2.54. N. MacKinnon had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 4.7. S. Wedgewood stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
MIN	0	0	2	0	2
COL	0	1	1	1	3

2nd 12:19COLN. MacKinnon0.11 xG
3rd 4:17MINK. KaprizovPP0.05 xG
3rd 7:01MINN. SturmSH0.16 xG
3rd 12:39COLN. Roy0.08 xG

Team Stats

MINCOL

34Shots on goal36

2.54Expected goals4.70

65Shot attempts80

275v5 shots on goal23

1/4Power play0/5

25Hits20

21Blocked shots14

10Penalty minutes8

19Giveaways8

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.54 xGCOL 4.70 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN34 on goal, 2 scored

COL36 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	-2	2	22:41	3:34
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	1	1	1	0	4	0	0	21:34	3:31
N. Sturm	C	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	7:47	0:01
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	22:26	3:36
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	17:48	2:29
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	-2	2	17:30	1:33
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	15:03	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:36	1:31
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	12:52	1:35
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	0	12:39	0:55
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	3	2	3	0	0	10:44	0:02
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	9:00	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	28:14	1:26
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-2	2	26:48	3:29
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	17:53	0:02
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:48	0:48
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	17:48	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	13:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	36	34	2	.944	64:29	OT loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	0	1	9	0	0	+1	2	22:29	6:15
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	5	3	1	+1	0	21:47	6:43
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	13:11	0:00
N. Roy	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	2	12:16	0:00
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	6	1	0	+1	0	25:01	7:06
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	24:06	7:05
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	15:42	2:45
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	14:58	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	14:06	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	2	12:41	2:55
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	10:05	3:47
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	6:12	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	18:04	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	25:43	3:41
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	25:00	6:49
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	-1	0	18:41	2:54
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	17:44	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	14:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	34	32	2	.941	63:56	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Zuccarello14:34R. Hartman14:16K. Kaprizov16:29

Line 2V. Tarasenko12:04D. Yurov11:43Y. Trenin11:37

Line 3M. Boldy11:36J. Ek11:35B. Brink9:52

Line 4N. Foligno6:30M. McCarron6:51N. Sturm5:39

Pair 1Q. Hughes20:24B. Faber19:02

Pair 2J. Brodin13:01J. Spurgeon12:13

Pair 3Z. Bogosian12:33J. Middleton11:46

COL

Line 1N. Kadri13:36M. Necas15:30N. MacKinnon12:42

Line 2P. Kelly12:50N. Roy11:55G. Brindley6:18

Line 3B. Nelson11:38V. Nichushkin11:14R. Colton9:42

Line 4J. Drury12:04J. Kiviranta10:38Z. Bardakov4:57

Pair 1D. Toews16:46C. Makar15:42

Pair 2B. Kulak15:25S. Malinski15:16

Pair 3B. Burns12:55J. Manson12:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamYakov Trenin MIN Faces COL, his team until May 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.8, COL 3.8	MIN 2, COL 3
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	MIN 25.8, COL 35.6	MIN 34, COL 36
Win chance	COL 65%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.7	9	1.62	1	43%	1
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.3	4	1.03	1	40%	1
COL C. Makar	3.1	0	1.04	0	25%	0
COL M. Necas	3.0	6	1.20	0	33%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.0	4	0.86	0	31%	0
COL N. Kadri	2.9	5	0.74	1	27%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.8	0	0.95	0	37%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.5	1	0.58	1	23%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.3	0	0.88	1	11%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.3	1	0.69	0	29%	0
COL R. Colton	2.1	2	0.40	0	17%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.1	2	0.43	0	20%	0
COL S. Malinski	2.0	2	0.34	0	6%	0
COL B. Burns	2.0	0	0.36	0	9%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.0	3	0.72	0	21%	0
COL D. Toews	1.9	3	0.47	0	10%	0
COL J. Manson	1.7	1	0.35	0	7%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.6	3	0.42	0	19%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.5	1	0.46	0	17%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.5	1	0.37	1	8%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.5	0	0.35	0	15%	0
COL J. Drury	1.3	0	0.34	0	12%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.3	3	0.21	0	10%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.2	0	0.21	1	4%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	1	0.24	0	12%	0
COL N. Roy	1.1	3	0.36	1	14%	1
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.0	1	0.27	0	6%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.0	4	0.33	0	12%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.0	1	0.21	0	9%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.9	2	0.21	1	10%	0
MIN J. Brodin	0.9	2	0.23	0	4%	0
MIN N. Foligno	0.9	1	0.28	0	11%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.8	0	0.21	0	4%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	2	0.16	0	3%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.7	1	0.16	1	8%	1
COL Z. Bardakov	0.5	1	0.18	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.