Game Recap: MIN 6, COL 9, May 3, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN6

FinalSun, May 3, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

COL9

COL beat MIN 9-6, and the chances backed it up: 3.79 expected goals to 3.00. D. Toews led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). N. Kadri had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. S. Wedgewood stopped 30 of 36.

Team Stats

MINCOL

36Shots on goal43

3.00Expected goals3.79

60Shot attempts66

315v5 shots on goal39

0/3Power play1/2

24Hits26

12Blocked shots11

8Penalty minutes10

15Giveaways16

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.00 xGCOL 3.79 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN34 on goal, 6 scored

COL41 on goal, 8 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	-2	0	21:46	5:12
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	3	2	2	0	0	20:27	4:55
M. Zuccarello	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-2	0	19:45	5:01
V. Tarasenko	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	16:25	2:14
R. Hartman	RW	1	0	1	7	2	0	-2	2	16:00	1:02
M. McCarron	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	-1	0	14:22	0:00
M. Johansson	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:35	1:08
Y. Trenin	C	0	1	1	1	5	0	0	0	11:40	0:00
D. Yurov	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	11:10	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	10:38	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	12:03	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	11:15	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	1	2	3	2	0	1	0	0	28:57	5:08
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	6	25:31	4:07
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-3	0	18:11	0:52
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-3	0	16:42	0:21
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	15:02	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	14:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	42	34	8	.810	59:28	Loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	2	3	4	1	0	+3	0	19:06	1:43
M. Necas	C	0	3	3	3	2	0	+3	0	18:38	1:43
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	1	2	3	3	1	+4	2	19:20	1:55
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	2	2	2	1	0	+1	0	15:24	1:06
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	8	1	0	-3	2	13:51	1:43
L. O'Connor	RW	0	1	1	5	3	0	0	0	13:08	0:00
G. Landeskog	LW	0	1	1	1	3	2	0	4	13:00	0:54
J. Drury	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	12:28	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	-2	0	10:23	0:00
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	0	17:16	1:06
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	13:04	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	10:05	0:00
D. Toews	D	1	3	4	1	0	1	+4	0	27:35	1:55
C. Makar	D	2	1	3	3	0	2	+2	2	17:11	0:54
S. Malinski	D	1	1	2	2	3	0	+3	0	20:15	1:06
N. Blankenburg	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	-2	0	10:06	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	25:01	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-3	0	18:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	36	30	6	.833	60:00	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Zuccarello14:12K. Kaprizov16:02R. Hartman14:26

Line 2V. Tarasenko14:11M. McCarron12:46Y. Trenin11:40

Line 3M. Johansson12:27M. Boldy14:02D. Yurov11:10

Line 4M. Foligno10:22N. Sturm10:18N. Foligno10:12

Pair 1Q. Hughes23:17B. Faber20:52

Pair 2Z. Bogosian14:28D. Hunt13:39

Pair 3J. Spurgeon15:04J. Middleton14:07

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon16:51M. Necas16:23A. Lehkonen15:25

Line 2B. Nelson13:23V. Nichushkin12:04G. Landeskog12:06

Line 3N. Kadri12:08N. Roy10:05R. Colton10:23

Line 4P. Kelly10:50J. Drury10:40L. O'Connor11:37

Pair 1D. Toews21:18C. Makar13:28

Pair 2B. Kulak22:49S. Malinski18:42

Pair 3B. Burns14:57N. Blankenburg10:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamYakov Trenin MIN Faces COL, his team until May 20241 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.7, COL 3.7	MIN 6, COL 9
Total goals	6.4	15
Shots on goal	MIN 26.0, COL 34.7	MIN 36, COL 43
Win chance	COL 66%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.0	4	1.45	3	41%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.6	3	0.87	1	33%	0
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.3	1	0.99	1	40%	0
COL C. Makar	3.0	3	1.06	3	26%	2
COL M. Necas	2.7	3	1.08	3	31%	0
COL S. Malinski	2.4	2	0.48	2	10%	1
COL G. Landeskog	2.4	1	0.83	1	30%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.3	7	0.50	1	22%	1
COL N. Kadri	2.3	8	0.66	1	24%	1
MIN Q. Hughes	2.2	2	0.85	3	11%	1
COL B. Burns	2.1	0	0.38	0	10%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.1	4	0.69	0	30%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.1	3	0.65	2	27%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.0	2	0.63	2	27%	0
COL D. Toews	2.0	1	0.57	4	12%	1
MIN B. Faber	1.9	5	0.43	0	10%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	1.9	2	0.65	1	19%	1
COL R. Colton	1.8	1	0.34	1	15%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.7	2	0.43	1	19%	1
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	1	0.39	1	14%	1
COL B. Kulak	1.4	1	0.23	0	5%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.3	2	0.20	1	11%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	2	0.32	0	14%	0
COL N. Roy	1.2	0	0.40	0	15%	0
COL J. Drury	1.1	1	0.28	1	10%	1
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.1	1	0.26	0	6%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.0	5	0.27	1	11%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.0	1	0.18	1	9%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	3	0.22	1	12%	1
MIN D. Yurov	1.0	0	0.25	1	12%	0
MIN N. Foligno	1.0	1	0.25	0	10%	0
COL N. Blankenburg	1.0	2	0.21	1	6%	1
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	2	0.17	0	8%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.7	2	0.16	0	3%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.7	1	0.16	0	2%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.6	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.